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ANALYSIS

In the city, Democrats aren't stronger; only foes are weaker


The Bangkok gubernatorial race is normally the most fascinating of Thai elections. When it takes place at the most unusual time it is supposed to deliver even greater excitement and a flamboyant winner. Sunday, therefore, was an anti-climatic letdown.

Popularity polls had given false hopes that this could be the closest race ever. Exit polls crushed them immediately after the ballot boxes were sealed. TV coverage was lukewarm and vote count lost its charm way before sunset.

M.R. Sukhumbhand Paribatra is a decent winner but he must be the most ordinary character to have won the race. Second runner-up Nattakorn Devakula was right _ it was the Democrat Party that won the election, not its unassuming, publicity-shy candidate.

The election's outcome, which made Sukhumbhand the first-ever Bangkok governor to come from the concurrent ruling party, told a few stories. First of all, it confirmed where Bangkok stands when it comes to the political crisis. Granted, Pheu Thai candidate Yuranan Pamornmontri, who finished first runner-up, was not a major appeal, but neither was the winner himself. It was a simple test of strength between the Democrats and their arch-rivals.

Sukhumbhand even did great in Constitution 10, the once impregnable stronghold of the People Power Party which has reincarnated into Pheu Thai. Whereas the overall outcome did not show increase in support for the Democrats compared with the time Apirak Kosayodhin won back-to-back governor elections, it seemed to expose decline in popularity, logistics and general mechanisms of the former Thai Rak Thai Party in the city.

To sum it up, the Bangkok results demonstrated a wavering, disarrayed Pheu Thai in the capital rather than displayed strengthened Democrats. But it was good news for the ruling party all the same, not least because a Yuranan strong showing would have aggravated all sorts of the government's problems both here and abroad.

 For Nattakorn and third runner-up Kaewsan Atibhodi, it was good investment. The latter had impressed the most in TV discussions whereas Nattakorn had that sophisticated charm that could have come in handy in politically peaceful time. It was unfortunate, like Nattakorn rightly stated, that national politics often decided who won the Bangkok race.

Sukhumbhand will take this victory, no matter what anyone says. His party will embrace it as a much-needed breathing space. But the ruling camp knows better than anybody how fickle Bangkok voters are and how much easier winning their support is than keeping it in the next election.


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