Battle for Northeast

Tomorrow's by-elections to fill 29 House seats are likely to show that the Pheu Thai Party no longer has an invincible and exclusive influence over the Northeast in spite of its attempt to hang on to the coat-tails of ex-prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Furthermore, the Friends of Newin faction is set to emerge as an antidote to the main opposition party.

Even though the faction has not fielded a single candidate in the by-elections, its powerful electoral machinery is expected to deny victory to a number of Pheu Thai candidates in order to protect the faction's turf.

The voting will not alter the House majority in a significant way. In fact, the Democrat-led coalition will see |a slight boost in its majority |votes, though this is not expected |to weaken the opposition.

Of 29 seats up for grabs, 13 were previously occupied by People Power lawmakers and 16 by Chart Thai MPs. The by-elections have been prompted by the disbanding of three parties - the other being Matchima Thipataya - on December 2.

Pheu Thai, the rebirth of People Power, seeks to defend its opposition turf, while the Chart Thai Pattana Party is the new banner of the disbanded Chart Thai.

Deputy Prime Minister Sanan Kachornprasart said Chart Thai Pattana was likely to reclaim all of the 13 MP seats that had gone with the party's dissolution.

"I have not helped the candidates to campaign in the election, because I could be accused of taking advantage over opponents. But I have told all the candidates to stick to the law. We have learned a lesson from the party's dissolution," he said.

Other parties in the by-election races are the Democrat, Pracharaj, Ruam Jai Thai Chart Pattana, Puea Pandin and Social Action parties.

The vacant House seats are from the Central Region (15), the Northeast (10), the North (two), Bangkok (one) and the South (one).

For Bangkok's Constituency 10, the Democrat Party is poised for victory in a two-horse race with Pheu Thai. The Pheu Thai campaign is surprisingly lukewarm, as if the main opposition party has already thrown in the towel before the voting.

For the Central Region, it is evident that Chart Thai Pattana will certainly win eight seats from Suphan Buri, Sing Buri, Angthong and Uthai Thai, seen as the backyards of barred Chart Thai leader Banharn Silapa-archa.

The party has a fair chance to retain its three seats from Lop Buri, Pathum Thani and Nakhon Pathom, although the Pheu Thai Party is waging a tough fight in these strongholds. Pheu Thai candidates are top contenders to win Saraburi and Samut Prakan. The Democrat candidate may emerge as a victorious dark horse in Ratchaburi, seen as the Pheu Thai backyard.

The race in Chachoengsao may see an upset victory for the Puea Pandin Party, although Pheu Thai is in the lead.

In the North, a Pheu Thai victory in two House seats from Lampang and Lamphun is a virtual guarantee. In the South, the Chart Thai Pattana Party is in the undisputed lead to win the seat from Narathiwat.

In the Northeast, the Pheu Thai Party is trying to defend six seats previously held by People Power MPs. The region's other four seats were vacated by Chart Thai lawmakers.

At least three of six seats Pheu Thai desperately wants to win are from the strongholds of the Friends of Newin faction. Two are from Buri Ram and one from Udon Thani.