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Anupong scored points with deliberate inaction
By Thanong Khanthong
General Anupong Paochinda speaks the loudest. For good or bad reasons, he speaks with his tanks. But he does not need to roll out his tanks onto the streets in the old-fashioned style of military coup. The appearance of having many tanks behind his back is good enough.
Whenever there is political instability, the role of the men in green uniform is prominent. This is the reality of Thai politics.
Anupong has played his game shrewdly. Without his manoeuvring, Abhisit Vejjajiva would not have become prime minister.
His role is controversial. Some people say he is an opportunist. Others say he is a royalist. Some say he should not be trusted because he betrayed Thaksin Shinawatra and most of his friends. Others say he stands by the people and democracy.
No matter how he is judged, Anupong is the one person who has been most influential in 2008. His action, or ironically no action for the most part, has turned the face of Thai politics to where we now stand with Abhisit at the helm of a Democrat-led coalition government.
Anupong has said repeatedly that it is easy to stage a military coup but it is another matter to govern after that. The Surayud government proved the case.
There were at least four occasions this year when the military would have liked to stage a coup to end the political crisis. Each time, Anupong did not show up for the appointment, much to the dismay of his military colleagues.
The military body thought that the country could no longer move forward because the wounds of the political division had been too deep to heal.
The People's Alliance for Democracy had revived its street demonstrations, with hopes that the military would step in to clean up the mess again. The military staged a coup in 2006 but the Surayud government screwed up everything. The PAD protesters were demanding the end of the remnants of the political influence of Thaksin. At the same time, the Red Shirt supporters of Thaksin used violence against the PAD, while the authorities turned a blind eye. The scene turned into a mini civil war.
But the coup failed to materialise largely due to lack of cooperation from Anupong. The PAD leaders were so mad at the Army chief that they attacked him almost every day in their rallies.
In public, Anupong has sent out a signal that he prefers the political crisis to be resolved through political means. In private, it is pure power play.
In October 2007, Anupong was appointed Army chief by Prime Minister General Surayud Chulnanont. General Sonthi Boonyaratglin, the coup leader, could not block Anupong's rise. Although he staged a coup against Thaksin, Sonthi later cut a deal with Thaksin to try to destroy Anupong.
Thaksin and Anupong went to the same class 10 at the pre-cadet military school. Anupong was looked upon as a black sheep in this class 10 because he broke ranks to join the military coup against Thaksin. Most of his classmates were later on moved to inactive posts.
Sonthi preferred General Montri Sangkasap for the Army chief post. In the end, Surayud called the shot by supporting Anupong instead.
Surayud's hasty call for the general election handed the power back to the remnants of Thaksin. Samak Sundaravej became prime minister in early 2008 and went on to chart out his own turf without listening to Thaksin. Samak gave Gen Anupong almost a free hand in the military reshuffle, hoping to get his backing in return. Wherever Samak went, he preferred to have Anupong accompany him.
The critical moment came on September 2 when Samak declared a state of emergency against the PAD's protesters occupying the Government House. The PAD regrouped in August when the Samak government tried to amend the Constitution to offer amnesty to the former executive members of the defunct Thai Rak Thai Party. With the state of emergency, Samak handed absolute power to Anupong to quash the protesters. But the Army chief simply didn't want the hot potato, knowing he would lose out if he were to use military force against the protesters.
At the same time, he called for the Samak government to resolve the crisis through political means, one way of which was to set up a national unity government. With Anupong taking a firm stand, the Samak government lost further credibility to govern.
The tense situation turned into a stalemate. The PAD continued to celebrate inside Government House. In the end, Samak had to go when the Constitution Court wielded the axe.
Somchai Wongsawat inherited a weak government. His relationship with the military deterioriated fast. Somchai only had the police as his ally. On October 7, the day when Somchai delivered his policy address to Parliament, the government took drastic action against the protesters by shooting tear gas at them. Several protesters lost their arms and legs. The military stood idle, while the police did the dirty job.
Like the Samak government, Somchai would find himself without any power to govern. Nobody was listening to him.
When Somchai went abroad to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Peru in late November, the situation in Bangkok was very tense. The PAD protesters went for a blockade of Don Mueang and Suvarnabhumi airports, hoping the military would have no choice but to stage a coup.
Somchai would not dare to disembark in Bangkok. As soon as his plane landed at the Air Force airport adjacent to Don Mueang, it immediately flew off again to Chiang Mai, where Somchai could keep his distance from the military and the PAD protesters.
All the time, the government threatened to sack Anupong if he did not cooperate by taking on the protesters at the airports. Somchai declared a state of emergency around the two airports and assigned the police to handle the security.
Again, Anupong would not have anything to do with the state of emergency. He would exert no action.
Anupong rebuffed Somchai by sending back a signal that the military would stage a coup if Somchai were to remove him from the Army post.
With two prime ministers from the Thaksin camp losing power in a hurry, Somchai ousted through a party dissolution court order, it was impossible to have the third nominee prime minister from this camp.
Anupong backed a switch in the core of the coalition government. The Democrats got a political windfall. With the defection by Newin Chidchob and his allies, who sought shelter under the military wing, Abhisit succeeded in mustering enough majority in Parliament to become prime minister.
Anupong has promised to back the Democrats for at least two years. But between now and then anything could happen.
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Newin's bolt from blue blew Thaksin
By Tulsathit Taptim
If Thaksin Shinawatra is the name associated with the modern ills of democracy, Newin Chidchob must be the one representing the old-school shortcomings of the system. After a four-year reign of the former, it looked as if Newinesque politicians' time was up. You may have been kings, Thaksin told them, but I am the emperor.
But the likes of Newin are the seeds of grass that can wait forever underground as long as the conditions are not right. As Thaksin replaced rural patronage with endless offerings directly from the central government and took the terms political networking and financing far beyond the levels known to the old guards, Newin went humbly with the flow. When he tearfully hugged Thaksin at the beginning of the latter's downfall in 2006, it must now be a goodbye the ousted leader wants to forget.
And if that farewell signalled the beginning of the end of a political style that was simply too fast to live, this month's photo of Newin and Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva embracing was an eerie reminder of the resilience of old-style political demons. They can't be taken out by a coup, or street protests. They are adaptors of the most flexible kind.
Only this time they cause ambivalence rather than the usual absolute dismay. Newin's revolt, somehow, gave Thailand a much-needed break no matter what the future holds. "It's over, boss," he reportedly told Thaksin on the phone. Without his switch of allegiance to the Democrats, it would not have been.
Is it a fitting end brought onto the emperor by one of the kings? The defection changed the whole complexion of Thailand's power play, depriving Thaksin of indirect control of state power and making him a real "freedom fighter" who will now have to fight without the means he enjoyed most of 2008.
We have been left speculating why. Gossips portrayed a highly ambitious politician seeing his master's absence as a perfect opportunity to make his own luck, thus ending up being pitted against Thaksin's relatives and inner circles and everything deteriorating ever since. More positive hearsays had Newin very upset with the way former prime minister Samak Sundaravej was treated by Thaksin and Co, and with the "disastrous" decision to add fuel to the fire by installing Somchai Wongsawat as Samak's successor.
What we know for sure is that Newin is back. Latest speculation has him planning to consolidate all coalition partners, with the exception of the MPs from the dissolved Chart Thai camp, and form a major political party. After all he has managed, that does not even sound too ambitious. With the rain coming and other conditions conducive, the long-dormant seeds of grass are ready to prevail in the Thai political landscape once again.
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