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Thai Rath, the mass circulation daily, followed up with a commentary in its Wednesday edition. The headline said: "The game is to pressure Thaksin to fly back." Thai Rath gives good hints about Thaksin's movements. If you want to know Thaksin's intent or what his next move may be, you read its commentaries. In a way, the Wednesday commentary seeks to create an agenda for Thaksin and test the domestic sentiment.

What would we say if Thaksin were to fly back home tomorrow? What would happen if 100,000 people met him at, say, Chiang Mai airport to provide him with a human shield? He could return home on December 28 when his red-shirted supporters are scheduled to hold a rally in front of Parliament to disrupt Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's policy address to Parliament.

But underlying the tone of the commentary is that Thaksin is in a desperate situation. He has few options left but to return home to confront his political enemies.

First, his political base is dwindling fast. How many members of the Pheu Thai Party will be left? Thaksin has made a big mistake by alienating Newin Chidchob from his inner circle of supporters. Now the Democrats have formed the coalition government. His supporters are in disarray. He can no longer dictate the play.

Thaksin has relied too much on the factions of Yaowapha Wongsawat, his sister, and Sudarat Keyuraphand. Newin, Suchat Tancharoen, Sora-art Klinpratoom and Somsak Thepsuthin have deserted him. Without these guys, Thaksin's political base will disappear in a hurry.

The Cabinet line-up shows that the Newin group has taken the lion's share of portfolios. It has been rewarded with the Interior Ministry and the Transport Ministry. This implies that the Newin group will not only make big money but will also play a key role in the next election, as the coalition hopes to consolidate the Northeast.

What Thai Rath did not report or did not know is that Thaksin is in difficult financial shape. From a nominal US$5 billion in total assets overseas, Thaksin now has only US$500 million left. His leveraged investment in stock markets, real estate, and futures trading on oil, rice and gold contracts has backfired with the collapse of the global financial markets and commodity prices. Much worse, the UK authorities have also frozen $4.2 billion of his assets and revoked his visa. He increasingly finds it difficult to move about from country to country because of the visa ban.

With less money in the kitty, Thaksin is not in a position to finance the next election. His Bt76 billion, frozen by the Thai authorities, is critical to his political future. That's why his wife Pojaman divorced him and has returned to Bangkok. Her aim is to protect this money, the final stockpile of the family. At least she can claim that part of it belongs to her.

 But the "unusually rich" case against Thaksin is now going to the Supreme Court. The court yesterday rejected a request by Thaksin and his relatives for more time to submit their testimony. If Thaksin is found guilty, his Bt76 billion would be forfeited into state coffers.

Thaksin will fight to the death to get this Bt76 billion he claims belonged to his family before he entered politics. The prospect is that he is likely to lose the case in court. That's why he may want to fly home. But the latest indication is that he will not return now or in the near future because he is afraid for his security.

Prime Minister Abhisit has said Thaksin is welcome to come home to face his jail sentence and further charges. But that means Thaksin has to go through the judicial process like all other Thais.

He is reaching the dead end of his political destiny.