Govt must avoid internal conflict, warns Suwat

How do you view the Abhisit government?

Judging from the public reactions, I am a bit worried about acceptance. There are high expectations towards the prime minister. He is a new-generation politician who is foreign-educated; he graduated from Oxford University. However, due to some limitations in the Thai politics [that prevented him from filling Cabinet seats the way he desired], we will see what he will do to compensate for the public disappointment. He will have to prove that despite some disadvantage, his Cabinet in fact is capable. The government will have to start working from today to show its capability to the public. How long it will survive will depend on its performance. If they can work efficiently, our country will have a bright outlook. Their image now is not very good, but they will have to compensate with their performance.

For how long do you give to the government to prove its worth?

With the high public expectations, the government doesn't have much time. It will have to start working urgently, immediately.

What are possible causes for concern for this government?

First, the number of government MPs is only slightly more than the opposition. During the vote for the PM, the approval votes were less than half of all the House seats. [Half of the House is 240 seats; the PM got 235 approval votes.] In the upcoming by-elections, the margin will be even smaller if opposition parties manage to win more House seats. During censure debate against them, the more than 10 Cabinet members who are MPs will not be allowed to vote for themselves. What is worrying is the government's slim majority in the House.

Another worry involves conflicts within certain coalition parties, including the Democrat Party, which they will have to clear up and ensure unity as soon as possible. These are causes for concern that could shake the government's stability. The current government's situation is similar to when Chuan Leekpai became prime minister after the 1997 financial crisis, which led to resignation by his predecessor, Chavalit Yongchaiyudh.

However, at that time, Chuan's government managed to bring the Chart Pattana Party from the opposition into his coalition. However, there has been no such "helpful factor" for this government. So, they should clear any dispute and deal with the MPs upset by the Cabinet appointment. The goal is to maintain stability. And they also will have to work hard to win public support. Sometimes government stability is not enough without public satisfaction.

For how long do you think this government will survive?

It's too early to predict now. How long a government will survive depends mainly on its performance. I think after two months we will realise how well the government is working.

Will ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra pose as a problem for the government?

With the government's slim majority, any factor can cause problems or make things worse for the government. So, it is best for the government to make sure there's unity within the coalition.

Certain Cabinet members have made it clear they are going to "deal with" Thaksin. There's no need for the government to take extra measures against any person in particular. What should be done is to ensure the law is fully enforced in a fair manner, without preferential treatment.

Will the perception this government is backed by the military have a negative impact?

The government will have to clear up that image. It has to keep a proper distance from the military. Like a distance from the Sun, it's hot when you get too close and it's cold when you are too far away. An appropriate distance will be good for both the government and the military. There will be no perception that the military interferes with the government or the government interferes with the military.

Will the red-shirt people pose problems for the government?

Protesters need legitimacy to get widespread support. Today there are no protesters on the street so the government must not commit any mistake that can bring back protesters.