Set index target 567 for 2009

The consensus estimate for the average maximum level of the SET index at the end of 2009 would stay at 590 points and the average minimum at 364 points, Sombat Narawutthichai, secretarygeneral of the Securities Analysts Association, told a press briefing yesterday.

The SET's trough would be seen during the first and second quarters, he said.

Trinity Securities has the most pessimistic outlook for the SET Index among the respondents, predicting that Thai shares would bottom out at 267 points in the third quarter and peak at 535, he said.

Earningspershare (EPS) would fall 9.6 per cent while gross domestic product (GDP) would rise only 0.4 per cent.

Finansa Securities is the most bullish, forecasting the bottom at 470 and the year's high at 650.

The brokerage expects that EPS would drop 5.4 per cent and GDP would advance 2.5 per cent.

The latest poll surveyed the opinions of 18 brokers last Friday.

The shipping sector was expected to see the biggest EPS drop at 41.8 per cent, followed by the petrochemical sector at 30.9 per cent.

The banking sector's EPS is expected to decline 5.5 per cent, compared with 9.8percent growth in the previous survey, he said.

GDP would expand by 0.7 per cent on average, down from 4 per cent in the previous reading.

The latest round has the average EPS in 2009 shrinking by 4.9 per cent, compared to growing by 2.3 per cent in the previous one, he said.

The chances for slowerthanexpected economic growth around the world, the local political scene and the government's stability have galvanised analysts into trimming their projections in the latest survey, he said.

The spate of negative factors including the likelihood of export and tourism income declining, unemployment rising and domestic consumption waning has also played a role in swinging analysts to the bear camp, he said.

The lower interest rate, cheaper oil price and government economic stimulus package are the positive factors, he said.

The oneday repurchase rate next year is expected to average 1.58 per cent, he said, citing the consensus view.