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Democrats will be squeezed by friend and foe alike

IT would be too unrealistic and optimistic to expect the Democrat-led coalition to get a smooth ride on its first day in office, even before its policy statement is read in the House of Representatives.



The prospects look daunting, and the opposition, comprising cronies of Thaksin Shinawatra, will also have to work pretty hard to prove that it can be effective. It's clear that the opposition, which still does not have a designated leader, will not give time for the new coalition to show some results. The sabre rattling started even before the Democrats got down to work. The opposition is not patient enough to wait and hear what the Democrats have to say in the House.

The Democrats may have some advantage. This time round, they hold the reins of power while embracing former enemies as allies in the coalition. The new friends will take the role of countering the opposition led by the Pheu Thai Party, which mostly consists of members of the now-defunct People Power Party.

Despite their years of inaction, the Democrats are expected to hold together the fragile coalition to keep the opposition at bay. The red-shirted protesters are split into two camps; one is still pro-Thaksin, while the other, under the so-called Friends of Newin, flexed its muscles in Nakhon Ratchasima on Sunday.

With some heat being built up by the opposition, including a large gathering to protest against the policy statement later this month, the Democrats should leave this trouble for Newin Chidchob, the self-styled king-maker, to handle. This will prove whether he is a friend in deed, and in need, to the Democrats.

Oh yes, there are other critics. The business sector is not that happy with the selection of Cabinet members in charge of economic ministries, with the exception of Korn Chatikavanij at the Finance Ministry, perhaps.

Though the business sector appreciated the predicament of the Democrats under the coercive bargaining of their coalition partners - who are now branded traitors by the Thaksin cronies - there is still a general perception that the Democrats were too soft.

There was no sign of the Democrats bargaining from a position of strength. It could be that they need some real ammunition to deal with the opposition. That could be provided by Newin and his allies.

But if benefit-sharing arrangements fall apart and conflicts end up beyond reasonable compromise, it could be a suspenseful confrontation if, in the end the Newin crowd do switch camp again.

Prime Minister Abhisit has been talkative and defensive. He is making many promises that his team may not be able to deliver. Can they convince the people that they are actually able to fulfil expectations?

The Democrats have to make sure that while they have the competence and resolve to tackle the multifaceted economic problems that appear like the heads of the hydra, they also have to assure people that they can keep periodic rallies and protests by the red-shirted opposition in check.

More importantly, they must make sure that the police are with the government in terms of law enforcement. They must maintain proper order while restoring public confidence and trust that the present situation will not worsen.

Abhisit might have chalked up some marks with his outward modesty when he led Cabinet members to discuss problems with business people, and hear their views and woes. Such humility must be genuine and not be replaced by the arrogance of power.

Despite its grumbling, the private sector is willing to allow the Democrats time to show positive performance, simply because there is no other choice. It's better than facing the former devil with his insatiable gluttony. Abhisit has to prove that he is not leading a pack of hungry tigers.

The Democrats are being watched by friends and foes. To gain public faith and confidence, achieving results-oriented goals is not sufficient. The quick move to implement populist programmes to placate the rural poor in the Northeast and Thaksin's supporters in the North is needed, but not without some conditions.

Erosion from within will be the biggest threat to the Democrat-led coalition. Signs of cracks and conflicts in the early days after taking office can hasten the decay of public confidence. What follows will be resentment by supporters and the screaming for heads by Thaksin's cronies.

Abhisit will need something short of a miracle to stay long enough in power and prove to critics that he can deliver and that a fairly promising future lies ahead for us all.


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