
The easy part is over now for newly appointed Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, although the inspiring first address to the nation on Wednesday may have made things look deceptively promising. Reconcilation, after all, is the easiest word to say but the hardest one to put into effect. The political divide that Abhisit vowed to bridge is a gaping hole of historical, financial and social differences which were brought to boiling point by the fiercest cut-throat power play in recent memory. After the surreal ceremony of royal appointment, Thailand's 27th prime minister will walk straight into more or less the same brutal realities experienced to their detriment by his two predecessors.
The South was almost a no-fly zone for Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat, and the latter spent his last days in Chiang Mai because it was unsafe to set foot in Bangkok. Abhisit will likely face the same problem in different regions, the North and Northeast. He has the advantage of not being provocative in the same way as Samak, but just like Somchai, who was perceived as a nominee of Thaksin Shinawatra, Abhisit will be considered part of the conspiracy that brought down the fugitive former leader, who is still loved by millions in those two regions.
Obviously the Democrats' strategy for the North and Northeast will be to "reach out" with sufficient budgets, community projects and continuous welfare schemes. Some mild forms of populism, however, may only work in normal circumstances. With Thailand split into one yellow half and one red half, the situation is very complicated.
Abhisit can take heart, however, in the fact that Newin Chidchob is now on his side. The notorious northeastern veteran was known to be instrumental in political rallies, big or small, in favour of his former master Thaksin in the past. Newin's defection to the Democrats took a lot of bites out of recent schemes of protesters in red shirts. And if Abhisit uses him well, Newin might even be able to do a thing or two to help the government make inroads into the Northeast.
But Abhisit will be badly mistaken if he takes the relative lack of belligerence on the part of the red half of the country so far as a sign that with Thaksin gone the divide will be easier to bridge. Poor people who formed Thaksin's political base are a strange political mass. They may be largely passive, but reaching out to them may prove very difficult.
Already the new government is facing issues that will challenge its supposed reconciliation agenda. The National Human Rights Commission has held many high-profile figures, including Somchai Wongsawat, Chavalit Yongchaiyudh and Pol General Patcharawat Wongsuwan, responsible for the violence on October 7 that killed two yellow-shirt protesters and maimed and wounded many. Meanwhile red-shirt demonstrators are facing legal action for their aggressive protest at Parliament on the day Abhisit was elected new prime minister. The red-shirt "troublemakers" are inevitably being compared with the People's Alliance for Democracy who paralysed the Suvarnabhumi airport for days only recently, and the pro-red "Today's Truth" TV programme has been pulled off the air.
How will Abhisit treat each of the sensitive cases? In addition to them, the red-shirt movement plans to hold a mass rally at Sanam Luang on December 28, one day ahead of the policy debate in Parliament. Protest-organiser Veera Musigapong, one of the three hosts of "Today's Truth", said the demonstrators would push for Abhisit to dissolve the House right after announcing his policy.
Like his doomed predecessors Samak and Somchai, Abhisit will have little time to think when it comes to the issue of yellow and red; this issue will be tied to virtually everything his government touches, and one action can trigger a nasty chain reaction. The red and yellow divide, when coupled with economic problems, will give Abhisit his first, immediate test.
One man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter. What has become a cliché will be very real as far as Abhisit and his key agenda are concerned. He will be caught in a very sticky dilemma. The PAD will claim credit for his rise to premiership, whereas the red-shirt movement will seek to undermine his government, and the whole world will be watching how he treats both camps and how, under these circumstances, the reconcilation he promises to work very hard for will come about.