For Abhisit to survive, he must apear to be short-lived

The most popular forecast is perhaps: The new Abhisit government will be short-lived. But some contrarian observers are pointing to a different direction: Things may not be as predictable as they seem. The trick, these gravity-defying experts tell me, is that in order to last, Abhisit may have to present an image of being short-lived.

In fact, to say that the new premier won't have a honeymoon period is hopelessly hackneyed. Abhisit is the fifth prime minister this year. Samak Sundaravej lasted seven months. Somchai Wongsawat was in the hot seat all of 77 days. Acting Premier Chaovarat Chanweerakul was there for a week or so.

It is therefore a no-brainer to speculate on the brevity of Abhisit's tenure - if for no other reason than the public expects more from him than his two or three immediate predecessors.

Managing the people's expectations is without doubt much more complicated than running the country's affairs. Samak and Somchai had the "advantage" of being seen as Thaksin Shinawatra's nominees. They were therefore not expected to deliver any substantial results. Had the two not tried too hard to deny their role as Thaksin's nominees, they might have survived for a much longer period. But because they both made it their full-time task to deny being puppets, they ended up losing all credibility. Had they been frank and told the country, "Yes, I am Thaksin's nominee. If you trust him, you have to trust me", things might have been better.

The problem began the minute Samak said he was his own man - and when Somchai declared that Thaksin would have to respect the country's rule of law. No Thai with any self-respect believed them.

The most serious mistake Samak committed was perhaps when he stated with unparalleled confidence that he would not quit or dissolve Parliament - and he committed the mother of all political sins when he said, "I will be here until the end of my term." That's when even his supporters began to consider him so dangerous that they started ganging up with his foes to topple him.

Abhisit will have to avoid repeating that fatal mistake. In fact, Thai political common sense dictates that he begins by making it clear to everybody, especially the reluctant opposition Pheu Thai Party (Thaksin's new, uncomfortable role), that his will be a very vulnerable, fragile and shaky government.

First, he will have to lower public expectations by making it clear that the country's economic and political situation will "get worse before it gets better".

Suddenly, the Democrat Party's "99-Day Action Plan" of the last election comes in handy, although I am sure it hadn't been planned with the current scenario in mind. Abhisit can now claim he is fulfilling his campaign pledge by introducing real "99-Day" tactics - or a strategy of a series of 99-day action "bursts".

Any attempt to declare ambitious, long-term mega plans that indicate a ploy to stretch out the term longer than anything on a quarterly basis would set an anti-government move in action. For one thing, nobody in his right mind believes Abhisit can last that long. For another, the opposition forces will make sure that he won't last that long. But more important perhaps, if the Democrat-led government admits that its term could be cut short at any time, the danger of becoming arrogant and complacent would be that much less.

An even more crucial reason why Abhisit can't tell the Thai people he is leading a perfect Cabinet is that we all know he is sleeping with strange bedfellows in the coalition government. Even his staunchest supporters wouldn't want to show their public approval of this somewhat embarrassing shotgun wedding between the Democrats and the Friends of Newin.

Therefore, if the new premier seems a bit shy ("I am still not used to being called Mr Prime Minister") or somewhat embarrassed and apparently reluctant, then you know it's a deliberate attempt to survive the political onslaught by leaving the whole country in doubt as to whether he will still be here next month.

Don't forget that for a few weeks before the tide turned, Abhisit was telling reporters almost every day that it would be "virtually impossible" for the Democrat Party to overtake Thaksin's Pheu Thai Party to form the next government.

And if the goal is for his government to last longer than what the critics are predicting, what do you think he would start saying to the press?

(Share your views in my blogs at http://blog/nationmultimedia.com|/ThaiTalk or www.suthichaiyoon.|blogspot.com.)