Uneasy road ahead for Abhisit

The crucial issue of whether the political polarisation can and will dissipate hinges on the leadership of Prime Minister-designate Abhisit Vejjajiva.

The outcome of the House vote to name Abhisit as the 27th prime minister of Thailand is a warning that Abhisit is facing a rocky road ahead.

Abhisit's votes, particularly those cast by the Friends of Newin faction and the Puea Pandin Party, come with strings attached.

Puea Pandin MPs have openly endorsed Abhisit's leadership although a significant number of them opted to endorse the idea of a national government led by their party leader Pracha Promnok.

By rallying behind Pracha at the same time as endorsing Abhisit, the fickle party wants to kill two birds with one stone. It has made sure it will not miss the coalition bandwagon and that it has gained its leverage with the Democrats.

Under two governments led by Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat, Puea Pandin was a minor voice in light of the controlling majority.

As the Democrats have now gained a narrow majority, the party is expected to drive a hard bargain to take centre stage. A lapdog is about to turn into a fox.

Faction leader Newin Chidchob is always known as one of the astute politicians. He has conveniently cited the political deadlock facing the disbanded People Power Party, and its rebirth as Pheu Thai Party, as the ground to switch to the Democrat camp.

Although he claims to have put the country before his vested interest, it is interesting to note that his about-face happened after former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra personally intervened to downgrade his faction.

It is an open secret that Thaksin was the puppeteer behind the outgoing ruling party. During the transition from Samak's leadership to the Somchai government, Newin and his faction lost control of the mega-projects.

Two months later, Newin defected to the Democrats in a stunning move to blindside his benefactor-turned-tormentor Thaksin.

Without the crucial support from Newin, hapless Thaksin was left in the lurch to witness the Pheu Thai Party moving over to the opposition bench.

True to his reputation for being astute, Newin keeps his friends and foes guessing about the true strength of his faction.

Pheu Thai was willing to buy back the loyalty of the faction's MPs. But it had difficulty locating the whereabouts and pinpointing the number of MPs it needed to negotiate with.

By successfully installing the Democrat-led coalition, Newin has proved he has sufficient votes to pull the rug from under the Pheu Thai Party. He has equally kept the Democrats in the dark as to his votes pledged.

MPs claiming allegiance to the Friends of Newin faction appear to have scattered everywhere. More than 10 have adopted the Pheu Thai banner while remaining linked to the faction.

Others, with numbers fluctuating, are reportedly in a number of small parties. And about 20, including House Speaker Chai Chidchob, are undecided about their new party's banner. They have 60 days to finalise the decision on whether to form a new party or join one of the existing parties.

The uncertainty of numbers seems to have worked in favour of Newin and his faction. It has been widely speculated that the Democrats will allow the faction to have a say in mass transportation mega-projects in Bangkok.

With the Democrat and the Pheu Thai parties each failing to achieve a clear majority to outpace one another, Newin has emerged as a powerful broker to have control over the swing votes.

The Democrat-Pheu Thai polarisation has inadvertently boosted the influence of Newin who holds the key to tip the balance of power.

If Abhisit is to ensure the viability of his coalition to steer the country, he needs to quickly come up with a practical power-sharing scheme. Should he fail to appease his coalition partners, he will have no platform to overcome the political turbulence.

The allocation of Cabinet seats is crucial to drum up confidence. And Abhisit is obligated to work doubly hard because he has to form his government without knowing for certain how many coalition votes are at his disposal.

The 235 votes cast for Abhisit cannot be construed as the majority vested in the coalition.

The dust about party-hopping will not settle for 60 days. The political calculation should also factor in the outcome of the 26 by-elections scheduled for January 11. Then Abhisit can assess how strong his coalition really is.