Bleak year ahead as most markets down

The Department of Export Promotion has cut the export estimates for each market in light of the global economic meltdown next year, which would prompt the Commerce Ministry to revise its target.

The move came after the World Bank recently cut the global economic growth forecast for next year to one per cent from 2.6 per cent this year, as all countries have been hit by the US financial crisis.

"The impact of the financial crisis has hit consumer purchasing power," Phongsak Assakul, vice chairman of the Board of Trade of Thailand and the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said.

"Although exports of some

essential goods, including food would not decline in volume, the export value may decrease as consumers may go for lower-priced goods," he added.

The lowering of estimates for each market may lead to the country's total export target being less than 5 per cent next year, or US$189 billion (Bt 6.6 trillion), the lowest export expansion in a decade.

Recently, Phongsak said Thailand would face export difficulties next year as a fallout of the global economic downturn and the closure of airports. The chamber predicted that exports would face flat growth next year, from 15-20 per cent this year worth $172-180 billion.

All Thai Trade Centres abroad have lowered the export target to the traditional markets:

United States - from the previous year's target of 4 per cent to 2 per cent next year.

Japan - from 5 to 3 per cent.

European Union - from 5 to 4 per cent.

Asean countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, and Singapore) - from 10 to 5 per cent.

South Korea - from 12 to 5 per cent.

Exports to new potential markets would also drop slightly from the earlier estimates.

Indochina and Burma - from 24.4 per cent to 18 per cent

Africa - from 20 to 17 per cent

Latin America - from 20 to 16 per cent

Eastern Europe - from 25 to 20 per cent

South Asia - from 25 to 20 per cent

China - from 17 to 15 per cent

The only market with the potential for slight growth was the Middle East, with a target of 18 per cent against the earlier estimate of 17.7 per cent, as consumers in this market have high purchasing power.

To increase export growth next year, the Department of Export Promotion will hold more than 300 trade exhibitions in target markets and within the country. More than 320 trade missions would also be launched to fast growing countries in Asia, Africa, and the Middle

East.

New markets are expected to edge up to 50 per cent of the country's total export value, from 48.6 per cent expected this year. The US, EU and Japan are seen as dropping from 51.4 per cent this year to 50 per cent next year.