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The Democrats seem to be rising to power at a very high price. Known before the political crisis began around three years ago as a party that stood for the parliamentary system, that had always fought military opportunism, they are now seen as enjoying a political windfall with the generals' blessing. Although Army chief Anupong Paochinda has denied influencing the power shift from the pro-Thaksin camp to the Democrats, the denial has been overshadowed by a rumoured meeting between him and their reluctant-defector allies. The top brass's dreaded role as political kingmaker in the 80s has returned, only with far more complications.

While Abhisit Vejjajiva will be closely scrutinised should he become Thailand's new chief executive, Anupong will be in a much tougher situation. The Thai military will remain under a glaring international spotlight, but that is the least of its problems. Global criticism has become something all Thais have to live with, thanks to the Suvarnabhumi Airport shutdown, Thaksin Shinawatra's visa cancellation by the United Kingdom, the Economist's explosive article and so on. What happens locally matters more, and that revolves around one key question: where does the Thai military go from here?

Until the early 90s, politically ambitious generals asserted themselves, and there were even times when Thai politics was mainly about power struggles between military factions. It is different nowadays, and the men in uniform can be forgiven if they claim they are always dragged into it. The 2006 coup followed what was originally dubbed a "pro-democracy" uprising against a corrupt regime, reinstalling the military as the ultimate political arbitrator. Calls for new military intervention have been implicit to say the least since the virtual reincarnation of the regime led to damaging and sometimes disastrous deadlocks.

Over the past year Army chief Anupong has been arguably the most enigmatic figure in politics. One side saw him as a destabilising factor against democracy while the other accused him of selling out to Thaksin Shinawatra. When Anupong went on TV to denounce the Somchai government's use of force against anti-government protesters, some called it a "coup by TV" while others painted him as a "coward" staging a play to save his own status quo. He was bought by Thaksin, rumour as recent as two weeks ago said. Then last week there was this Anupong who invited the Thaksin allies to his residence and coerced them to switch allegiance to the Democrats.

Earlier there was the Anupong who would stage a new coup only if people agreed to let him be prime minister himself. At about the same time there was another Anupong, a brave general who was willing to be pilloried by both sides of the deepening national conflict in the country's best interests. The latter Anupong, it was said, had come to realise the damage another coup would inflict on Thailand.

The two faces of Anupong may represent the entire military's situation. The generals have flitted between being destroyers and saviours and been perceived as both by opposing camps. No blood has been on their hands since the September 2006 coup, and the worst political bloodshed since 1992 followed an order from a democratically elected government against bellicose demonstrators. The military, during the times of ex-prime ministers Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat, resisted efforts to take drastic measures to enforce a state of emergency that both prime ministers declared. Admirers hailed the refusal to take action that could have lead to a bloodbath, while detractors saw it as a conspiracy with the PAD to weaken a popularly elected administration.

Abhisit can turn it around and give the military just one face, if he doesn't fall into the same trap as Chatichai Choonhavan in 1991 and Thaksin, that is. We can talk about military reform or depoliticising the military all we like, but the truth is that the generals are only as powerful as politicians make them, and in spite of what Thaksin is trying to sell to the whole world, no ambitious, power-hungry military can undermine an honest government. A corruption-free government has nothing to worry about in Thailand, and this is what Thaksin and his publicists don't want the international community to see.

So where the military goes from here is not as important as how Abhisit proceeds from here. His government will face all kinds of trouble, and even the People's Alliance for Democracy could turn against it in the blink of an eye. If he becomes Thailand's new leader, he will have to rely on the one and only sure-fire immunity, not against political downfall but against military opportunism: Abhisit will have to make sure his administration is free of graft. That is easier said than done, but he will find out that it's the only way. If he manages to do that, not only the Thai military but everybody else will have just one face, and suddenly the Thai crisis may look easy to solve. If he fails, again we won't have to worry about how foreigners feel, because we will be in so deep that nothing will really matter.