Thaksin down, but not out

However, the final hurdle will probably be today's gathering of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra's supporters at the National Stadium. While this could be a last-ditch upset, it is unlikely that the formation of a new government will be derailed.

Yet, if elected, Abhisit will end up inheriting a divided nation and a weakened economy that has been buffeted by both domestic and external crises. Economically, the new government will face a sharp slowdown, with GDP growth likely to fall to just 1 to 2 per cent next year.

Due to the global financial crisis, Thai exports have already been hit hard by a fall in overseas demand, resulting in rising unemployment, especially among low-skilled factory workers.

Kiat Sitthi-amorn, a Democratic candidate for the commerce portfolio, told me the other day that increasing unemployment will be one of the top social and economic issues facing the new administration.

As a result, the new government will have to come up with innovative measures that create new jobs, both permanent and temporary.

In addition, the government must consider helping those who still have jobs but whose income has been greatly reduced due to the lack of overtime and extra payments in the industrial sector.

As for new graduates, there will also be measures to help them cope with the unfavourable labour market.

Secondly, the new government will have to revive tourism and other sectors damaged by the recent closure of the two main Bangkok airports. Its top priority will be to encourage tourists to return to Thailand.

Thirdly, the government will have to come up with innovative measures to help farmers suffering from falling commodity prices, because more price-guarantee schemes would be unsustainable.

Fourthly, the government will have to reform its foreign and domestic investment promotion policies to revive the investment sector - one of the key engines for economic growth.

Given that Thailand has been hit by a global economic crisis and a domestic political crisis, the new government will have to act quickly and effectively. There will be no honeymoon period for the new premier and his Cabinet.

Otherwise, the public will end up missing Thaksin, whose supporters are still fond of his decisive CEO-like style.

Today, thousands of Thaksin supporters are expected to converge at the National Stadium, which can accommodate about 40,000 people. The former PM has promised to talk directly, through a live phone-in, to his fans following the dissolution of his People Power Party on December 2.

His last phone-in for the "Truth Today" TV programme hosted by his aides on November 1 attracted more than 80,000 people to the venue, which was larger than the National Stadium. During the session, Thaksin suggested that he could only return if some "royal kindness" was shown, because he faces a two-year jail term.

Obviously, Thaksin may be down, but he is not completely out of the scene just yet.