STOPPAGE TIME
Thaksin is dead, long live Newin
By Tulsathit Taptim
The Nation
Published on December 10, 2008
SO, it's bye-bye Thaksin and Hello Newin. The photo of the new kingmaker hugging Democrat leader Abhisit Vejjajiva all but spells the end to an era and, strangely, reminds us all unequivocally that our politics remains unchanged. To some, hope may be rising; to others, all the ironies of the past few days hardly inspire optimism.
Assuming the road ahead is clear for the 45-year-old Democrat, his rise to the top executive post will be remembered not for what it gave us, but for what we had to give. So many principles have been compromised. So much of Thailand's reputation has been smeared. So much violence. So much pain.
How can we move ahead while all the prestigious Western media outlets have concluded that we are going backwards? How can we embrace "new politics" when Abhisit, one of our most promising political stars, is winning the race on the back of what is believed to be a fierce bidding war? We hailed the 1997 Constitution for its safeguards against factional politics holding the leader hostage, but look what is happening. We deplored the use of political nominees but the new government will still be crawling with them.
Newin said yesterday that it hurts him to have to back Abhisit. It must be the same, vice versa. And since it hurts us too, seeing both men making a pact, it begs the ultimate question of why it has to be this way.
If you perceive Abhisit as a new hope, then Newin must be a necessary transition. It will then depend on how well the new leader defies gravity and rises to the numerous challenges. There is the persistent trouble in the deep South, the widening red-yellow national divide, the international mistrust - if not disdain - of our current political system, and the looming economic slowdown.
If you don't have any faith in Abhisit, then Newin's spectacular rebellion against his "boss" must epitomise the chronic political ills. The notorious politician from Buri Ram, who to many of us embodies all that is wrong about our system, must have simply jumped from a sinking ship to another vessel that remains afloat.
How did Abhisit go from fighting Newin's "boss" to becoming his "boss" himself? If you are one of the Democrat leader's supporters, you can take heart in the fact that, in the current circumstances, there is no better way. It's either this, or we remain stuck in the detrimental
PAD versus nominees showdown.
Or you can consider this a new form of coup d'etat. First, Newin's old boss was neutralised, then his party was disbanded and more legal traps were laid down, leaving all the rats with only one option. The military, it was alleged, also played a major role, telling the former Democrat rivals including Newin: "Join them, or else."
Like
Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat before him, Abhisit will lead a country in which one half of the population does not trust, or even hates, his government. That key factor of instability can be exploited and used as leverage by his reluctant allies, who can also take advantage of the Pheu Thai Party's size and readiness to lure them back in the future.
Thaksin Shinawatra's shadow, which has loomed over Thailand since 2006, will fade. Unlike Samak and Somchai, Abhisit will be free from the pressure to serve a master. Samak made the biggest mistake by mooting constitutional amendments widely seen as a design to whitewash one man, giving the
PAD the excuse to take to the streets - and everything went downhill from there.
Abhisit's job is strangely simpler. His real challenge, obviously, is how to act, mobilise, implement and execute as the chief executive of a deeply divided nation still in turmoil. Most of all, how he can reinvent himself as a remotely neutral leader, after having been dragged too far to one side of the conflict, may have to be the first priority on his agenda.
An uphill task it may look, but at least Abhisit will be the first leader in quite a long while to be able to concentrate on truly national matters. No personal business empire. No need to twist and distort tax or stock market laws. No need to wait for signals or instructions from the "master." No constitutional change to serve just one man.
But Newin is now back with a bang. Three years of Thaksin and the
PAD has somewhat diluted what the veteran really means to Thai politics. Keep a friend close, but keep an enemy closer, they always say. What they can't teach us, and what Abhisit in particular has to find out, is how to deal with the Newin situation.