Govt urged to delay new graduates from entering the job market

This number of unemployed equates to 2.5 per cent of the overall workforce.

In addition to the 450,000 people unemployed in the third quarter this year, the jobless numbers will go up as fresh graduates and unskilled labour enter the market. Most of the unemployed are in the 15-24 age group.

"This forecast does not include the impact from the airport closures," said NESDB deputy secretary-general Suwannee Khamman. "We will review our forecast because the airport closures have hurt tourism and related industries, particularly export-oriented sectors."

Losses to the tourism and related industries from the shutdown of the airports between November 25 and December 3 are estimated at Bt146 billion.

However, she expected the situation to be better than in 1998 when 1.4 million people, or 4.4 per cent of the workforce, were unemployed as the economy contracted by 10.5 per cent.

Earlier, the Federation of Thai Industries estimated that 1 million industrial jobs could be lost next year. The Tourism Council of Thailand said the tourism sector alone could lay off at least 100,000 workers as arrivals fell sharply due to the airport shutdowns.

The Tourism Authority of Thailand yesterday revealed that a preliminary survey showed that tourist arrivals from December to April would drop by 2.3 million, resulting in a revenue decline

of Bt86 billion to Bt130 billion. Its Bt170-million budget for overseas roadshows and advertising has been shifted to promote Thai tourism in markets with the highest potential, such as Scandinavian states.

The NESDB urged the Labour Ministry to encourage businesses not to shed their workforce - offering training courses instead - and encourage fresh graduates to further their studies.

More assistance is necessary for small and medium-sized businesses as well as the creation of provincial jobs to draw provincial workers back home. It estimated that if 600,000 more were unemployed, the Social Security Office (SSO) would need to pay unemployment benefits of up to Bt3 billion a month.

Meanwhile, acting Labour Minister Uraiwan Thienthong said yesterday that the SSO, which manages the Social Security Fund, will use Bt10 billion from the retirement fund to lend to affected workers through financial institutions, including Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives and Government Savings Bank, from January 1.

She added that 9 million workers covered by the fund could tap it for their independent businesses. The SSO has also doubled the unemployment-benefit period from 120 days to 240.

According to the NESDB, in the third quarter, employment in the industrial sector - especially in hotels and restaurants - had dropped due to the domestic political conflict. Minimising the impact was the growing labour demand in the agricultural sector, following the sharp rise in prices of farm products.

Suwannee said she also expected that domestic tourism would help miti-gate the impact from the airport shutdowns, which are expected to lead to a 50-per-cent plunge in foreign visitor arrivals to between 6 million and 7 million next year.