Lame duck prime minster, will he say or will he go?

Troops have been stationed around Bangkok at key positions. Military officers at the command level are on high alert, as is the police force. The military channel is announcing troop movements on the running text on its screen. This is not normal.

The ultimatum has been given to Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat to dissolve Parliament to end the worst political crisis ever, in return for the anti-government protesters ending their occupation of Suvarnabhumi Airport.

The crisis cannot go on any longer because Suvarnabhumi Airport cannot be allowed to close for more than 48 hours. The airport is the nerve centre of the Thai economy. Allowing it to remain closed any longer would deal incalculable damage to the economy and the country as a whole.

The authorities would like to re-open Suvarnabhumi this evening. But it would be impossible to clear all the security checks. The first flight from Suvarnabhumi should resume today

But AOT Plc, which manages Suvarnabhumi, has announced that the airport will resume operations on Saturday, November 29. Obviously, AOT knows that something big is about to happen.

The PAD knows this game. The airport cannot be closed for too long. That's why it is holding the country as its hostage in order to force a radical political change.

But Somchai, who is now in Chiang Mai, has tried to prolong his government for as long as possible. He would like to sack Army chief General Anupong. But if he sacks Anupong, the Army chief would stage a coup. If General Anupong does not stage a coup, somebody else will do it.

The situation has reached the point of no return. Rumours of a potential coup are thick in the air.

The foreign embassies in Bangkok have been alerted to this potential. They have prepared their statements for condemnation if the coup is to happen.

Can Somchai reverse the situation by dissolving Parliament? Is it too late to prevent a coup now?

Nobody knows at this critical hour. Offices in Bangkok have already told their staff to return home early. They, too, are not sure what's going to happen.

But the military does not want to stage a coup, if only Somchai were to take one step backward by dissolving the Parliament or if the PAD were to retreat from the airport. The polarisation is beyond any remedies.

So whose side is Gen Anupong now? It is probably official now that he is against the Somchai government -- and thaksin Shinawatra by extension.

Khunying Pojaman Shinawatra almost landed in Thailand yesterday along with Somchai to pave the way for her ex-husband's return. Somchai would like to hang on his premiership as long as possible to prepare for Pojaman's return.

If Pojaman could return to Bangkok, the political equation could have been tilted drastically in the government's favour by virtue of her deep pocket.

But Pojaman could not make it to Bangkok because she would go straight to jail. The Court would not allow her a bail because she has jumped bail before. A lot of negotiations were going on behind the scenes for her to get a bail, but to no avail.

But it was not Pojaman's time. thaksin could only return to Thailand in triumph with a revolution in his favour.

Pojaman would like to clear all the cases against her and her husband and get a chunk of her family's Bt76 billion, now being frozen at the banks, back in return for Somchai to dissolve Parliament. But this deal could not get through.

The Thai political crisis has been singularly revolving around this gold pot of Bt76 billion.

On Wednesday evening, Somchai had the aircraft captain turn the direction to Chiang Mai abruptly instead of landing in Suvarnabhumi, where the protesters were waiting for him. Disinformation was spreading out to give the impression that he would either land at U-tapao Airport in Chon Buri, which is under the Royal Navy, or the Air Force airport, which is adjacent to the Don Muang.

Somchai was afraid that he might be held under hostage by the unfriendly Air Force. He did not want to become another Lt Gen Chatichai Choonhavan, who was held at gun point at the Don Muang Airport by a senior air force officer. 

You know the history.