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Grim scenario as stage set for another round of warfare


After the conclusion of the royal cremation ceremony, the conflicting parties in this country have no more reason to exercise restraint. They seem to have put all efforts and resources to fight each other until the end. Compromise and restraint have achieved nothing over the past months but only produced frustration for all.

Deposed prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra has shown signs that he was ready for his last fight when he announced his divorce from his "close" wife Pojaman Shinawatra. Even a schoolboy would not believe that the couple had divorced for personal reasons.

The 32-year-old relationship would not have broken easily unless the couple had a more important agenda in mind. A close friend of Thaksin, Lt-General Ma Pongarm, who is the Kanchana-buri MP, visited Thaksin recently in Hong Kong and said the divorce was motivated by politics. The divorce meant Thaksin had sheltered his beloved wife and three children in a safe haven.

"Like a fighter, Thaksin will not bring his wife into the battle zone. With the divorce, Thaksin has nothing to worry about," Ma said.

One of his adversaries, Democrat secretary-general Suthep Thuaksuban, agreed with Ma, saying from now on Thaksin would not make any more compromises and was now in the offensive mode. Using all means, Thaksin would fight until the end and would never mind what would happen to the country, he said.

Thaksin began his new round of attack by setting up the Building Better Future Foundation with advertisements in two international newspapers, Financial Times and Wall Street Journal. He has chosen to play the game of information and psychological warfare.

Previously, Thaksin's camp managed to release "questionable", if not fabricated, information through a local news agency that he had received a lot of warm welcome from many countries after the United Kingdom revoked his visa. The local news outlet embarrassingly reported such stories, which benefited the fugitive former premier. The Bahamas and Bermuda governments denied the series of reports that they had offered political asylum to Thaksin.

Next, Thaksin would make another "phone-in" to a gathering of his supporters on December 14. The previous phone-in tactic through the "Truth Today" programme at the Rajamangala Stadium on November 1 triggered no violence but caused a lot of paranoia for his opponents.

Thaksin has threatened that in the next round he would not have soft words but would reveal the names of those who had 'cornered' him, in fact his enemies. The former prime minister has vowed to galvanise his supporters, who would gather at the Supacharasai National Stadium, which is located close to Government House, the stronghold of their opponents, the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD). Nobody can foresee what will happen after Thaksin's speech.

Jatuporn Prompan, People Power Party (PPP)'s MP and the organiser of the Truth Today programme, said the close location to the PAD would not trigger any clash between two groups as Thaksin's supporters were mostly non-violent. As the previous gathering was free from violence, the next assembly would be the same, he said.

Prior to Thaksin's phone-in programme in December, the group would call a small assembly at Wat Suankaeow in Nonthaburi on November 23 to test the waters and show support to the government's move to amend the military-sponsored constitution.

The government has vowed to propose the Constitutional amendment before the end of the current Parliament session this month. The PAD has threatened to mobilise all resources to block the government's move. It was widely speculated that the violence that happened on October 7 in front of Parliament was unavoidable as the pro-government group Democratic Alliance against Dictatorship (DAAD) would have come out to clash with the PAD.

Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat's resignation or Parliament dissolution was not an option as Thaksin has told PPP MPs who met him in Hong Kong recently that the lawmakers must save the government and complete the mission to bring Thaksin and former Thai Rak Thai Party executives back to the political arena. This job needed cooperation between the lawmakers and the Cabinet.

As Thaksin and his camp were about to begin the war, other factions, including the PAD and the army cnnot sit still. The situation from now looks grim.


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