Outlining the grave consequence from global warming

Prof Kasem Wattanachai, a privy councillor and former education minister, has warned that Thailand stands to lose a lot to global warming, which could wipe off the Suvarnabhumi civilisation if temperatures rise by another 4 to 5 degree Celsius.

Speaking at a seminar at the Sasin Institute for Global Affairs last Monday, Kasem said people needed a new mindset to cope with global imbalances, particularly those resulting from climate change.

According to Kasem, climate change - as evidenced by rising temperatures in many parts of the world - was manmade, with over-population being one of the major causes.

A few thousand years ago, the world's population was only 250 million. Now, it's around 6.7 billion, even though the Earth just has enough resources to support four billion people. Things look even bleaker as the population is forecast to rise to nine billion over the next three decades, which could mean that 800 million people would have to go hungry, Kasem said.

Luckily, Thailand may be saved from this given the successful family planning programme launched three or four decades ago. Thai population at present stands at a manageable 63 million, he said, noting that without an effective family-planning policy, the numbers could have topped 100 million by now.

However, he said, Thailand would soon have to face up to the problems of an ageing population making it necessary for the government to plan years in advance to cope with this trend.

On the global warming front, Kasem said the viability of mankind was under threat as scientists around the world have indicated that a 6-degree Celsius rise in temperature would make it impossible for most life forms to exist.

According to Kasem, Thailand and the Suvarnabhumi civilisation could disappear if temperatures rise by another 4 to 5 degrees, which may hit the country in the next 150 years. Global temperatures have already risen by about 1 degree as evidenced by volatility in the climate, such as more rain at unexpected times of the year in Thailand.

Kasem also said that Thailand may no longer have a monsoon thanks to climate change, so it was necessary for policymakers to focus on managing these new challenges, some of which could be advantageous. For example, more rain means more water that can be used for inland fish farming, especially since natural fish stocks are likely to diminish due to warmer temperatures.

In addition, he urged the government to provide more Board of Investment privileges for the agricultural sector. He said some Thai farmers have been offered huge sums of money for their land recently, but advised them not to sell because fertile land would become a more valuable commodity in the future due to the global food crisis.

Climate change is threatening the food supply chain in so many countries - especially those that import all their food such as the Middle East - that many are considering to invest in farming land in Southeast Asia, including Thailand. He said it would be a real pity if Thai farmers sold their plots to foreigners and then ended up working on their previously owned land as hired help.