Thaksin plays a dangerous amnesty game

Thaksin Shinawatra wanted to use his well-attended phone-in show to pave the way for his return to Thailand - not as a convict sentenced to jail on conflict of interest charges, but as a hero with royal blessings and a wild, welcoming ovation from rural people throughout the country.

The November 1 show of force by the "red rally" was nothing more than a marketing event organised by the ex-premier's apparatchiks here to underscore the "popular support" Thaksin still enjoys. More importantly, Thaksin wanted to use the occasion to publicly raise the issue of amnesty for himself.

That thinly veiled strategy, however, boomeranged almost instantly. Instead of calling for unity and the burying of the hatchet between his supporters and those vehemently against him, Thaksin fuelled the flames by repeating his accusations that the judicial process has been biased against him.

"Although a two-year jail term has been forced upon me, I am still the former prime minister. I am no mob leader," he said in his live telecast.

Thaksin's message was clear: he refuses to accept the court's verdict.

But then, not realising the contradictory tone of his public outpourings, Thaksin went on to tell the estimated 50,000-strong audience at Rajamangla Stadium: "I can come home only through royal mercy and the people's power."

There was little doubt in most observers' minds that he is seeking a royal pardon, implying at the same time that he had the backing of the masses.

It wasn't too difficult to come to the conclusion that he was in fact putting pressure on the whole country to let him back in and forget about all the court proceedings against him.

Almost immediately, those in the know and against him responded with cynicism and counter-reactions.

How can Thaksin seek an amnesty or pardon when he refuses to accept that he has done anything wrong?

The court that ruled on the Ratchadapisek land case is awaiting Thaksin's decision on whether he will lodge an appeal against the two-year jail sentence. The 30-day deadline falls on November 20. Thaksin has yet to say whether he will pursue that course. But he jumped the gun by hinting at a move to seek amnesty.

Unless he accepts the verdict and returns home to start serving the sentence, there is no legal possibility of a shortening of the jail term - or a royal pardon, for that matter.

Can the Somchai government make a move for amnesty then? The premier says his government won't take the initiative.

"Besides," he intoned, "the person concerned will have to seek that action himself." One day after the prime minister made that statement, a group of his own party's MPs contradicted him. One of them told reporters: "Since Thaksin raised the possibility of an amnesty, we will discuss it to see whether we can urge the government to find a means to help him."

In other words, the government's MPs don't give a hoot what the prime minister says - and the premier doesn't know how to handle the ex-prime minister, who happens to be his brother-in-law.

Thaksin may or may not have meant it that way but his phone-in session forced the military establishment into a "sensitive mode" once again. The next day, all the top brass met and concluded that Thaksin had, by seeking "royal kindness", made His Majesty the King "uneasy".

In simple terms, the military leaders told the former premier that his implication borders on lese majeste and they oppose his attempt to involve the monarch in his personal political manipulations.

It can't be a very wise strategy for Thaksin to continue to alienate various powerful institutions in our society. His public statements against the judicial system have done great damage to the country's reputation abroad. His clashes with the intelligentsia over his conflict of interest activities and populist policies are well known. Now, Thaksin has raised concern among the top brass about his abrasive moves to achieve his goals, regardless of the damage he may cause along the way.

The growing problem is that for him, the end justifies the means, no matter how costly and catastrophic.

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