Reason to hope for calm tomorrow

To address the foremost question of whether the gathering at Rajamangala Stadium will actually happen, it seems it will - unless the military steps in. What would make the generals do so? It would take something really bad - something bad enough to justify the use of force to restore order.

Of course, this is ousted PM Thaksin Shinawatra's idea of fighting back after suffering a big legal blow, and the prolonged siege of Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat's government has made it all but a lame-duck administration. What's different from other pro-Thaksin or anti-coup protests is that Newin Chidchob's involvement is reportedly very limited this time.

So we hope it's a one-day affair aimed more at attracting international attention and sympathy for Thaksin than launching a sustained physical campaign to counterbalance the People's Alliance for Democracy. Yet the gathering may still evolve into a long-term and hostile presence against the PAD, which would only fuel tension and cause unpredictable consequences.

Our Political Desk's take is that whereas the PAD has been hoping - in fact, begging - for the military to intervene, the pro-Thaksin camp does not enjoy the luxury of expecting the generals to be its friends if another coup happens. In other words, violence is not a good idea for Thaksin.

So far, the PAD has not seemed keen on becoming involved in any new trouble. Speakers at Government House have repeated they will only increase their vigilance and stressed the PAD protesters are only confronting state power and have no intention of turning against compatriots.

We, therefore, can still hope for the best. Whether Thaksin will be allowed to address his supporters via a phone-in should not raise a big fuss. He knows the world is watching, and everything he says and does will be covered by countless media outlets. Tomorrow's gathering ultimately has to support his international story that he is a political victim who remains loved by a vast sector of the Thai population.

Any violence generated by the Rajamangala Stadium rally would not help his portrayed status as an innocent political refugee. And it would surely deal him another big blow if things got out of control and provoked military intervention.