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EDITORIAL

N Korea even harder to predict than usual

China's desire to prevent a collapse of the regime and flood of refugees is one stabilising factor



North Korea is entering a new phase due to the uncertainties surrounding the health of supreme leader Kim Jong-il. There have been many rumours swirling about the state of his health and whether he can still command his country, especially the powerful armed forces and the ruling party. Reports say that the 66-year-old leader is still in hospital, recovering from a stroke and brain surgery.

Still, all reports confirm that he is well enough to perform his official duties even though he has not recovered physically.

However, the way in which Pyongyang lashed out at Seoul the other day was rather unusual given the improving relations between the two Koreas over the past few years. North Korea threatened to use everything in its arsenal to reduce South Korea to rubble if anti-Pyongyang propaganda was not brought to an end. Apparently, civic groups from Seoul have been scattering leaflets containing sensitive information on Kim's health - a taboo subject.

Perhaps the reaction was a reflection of what is going on inside Kim's inner circle.

Over the past several months, North Korea has been successful in drawing the United States into negotiations and agreements, both under six-party talks and bilateral frameworks, especially those on the verification of the denuclearisation of North Korea.

Recently, the US and North Korea managed to agree on the scope and type of verifications on the nuclear programs. It is hoped that in the next few rounds of talks, North Korea will agree upon broadening the agreement with the US. In return, the US has taken North Korea off the terrorist list, but the sanctions against Pyongyang will continue as a result of the 2006 nuclear test and other proliferation activities.

Obviously, given the highly volatile situation in North Korea, nobody wants to further rub salt into the wounds by upsetting Pyongyang leaders. After all, preventing the breakdown of North Korea has become a common objective of the six-party talks and the international community.

This is a far cry from the early 1990s, when the West predicted the collapse of North Korea due to an unsustainable economic system and oppression. That sort of doomsday scenario is long gone. Even though negotiations with North Korea still take a lot of time and patience, countries concerned are willing to play along. At the end of the day, a North Korea that is talking to the international community is a lot better than one that is not talking to anyone.

One should also not forget that over the past six decades, North Korea has only been ruled by the Kim family - Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il. No matter what happens in the future, North Korea should be integrated with the international community.

Look around: even the world's most isolated country, Cuba, has of late started adopting market-oriented economics and opening up. North Korea needs to do the same in order to improve its overall development. Whatever changes take place inside the reclusive country, the members of the six-party talks will have an important role to play in bringing stability and opportunity to North Korea.

Given its unique relation with North Korea, China has become one of the most important players to mediate and facilitate dialogue. Beijing does not want to see instability in the country because that would only cause a great refugee influx into China. Undoubtedly this is the reason why China is actively engaging North Korea.

 It is clear that members of the six-party talks need to continue engaging with North Korea no matter how difficult it is. Otherwise, North Korea's top echelons would be further cut off - an isolation that would only put the Korean Peninsula in danger.


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