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Thaibev's listing hinges on extent of opposition

Thai Beverages, the country's largest alcoholic drinks company, is likely to face a weaker opposition to its new stock listing plan on the local bourse, given that its most powerful opponent, Maj General Chamlong Srimuang, is now preoccupied with unseating the government.



In 2006, the firm, producer of Sangsom, Mekhong and Chang beer, aborted its listing plan on the Stock Exchange of Thailand following strong local opposition led by Chamlong.

Afterwards, its shares were instead listed on the Singapore bourse.

Last week, it re-applied for a dual listing of its shares on both the Singapore and Thai markets.

Chamlong said he would not personally lead the opposition to Thai Bev's listing this time due to his unfinished business at Government House where the anti-government People's Alliance for Democracy has camped out since late August to pressure the Somchai government to step down.

He noted that other Buddhist and anti-alcoholic beverage groups would continue to oppose the ThaiBev bid.

ThaiBev currently has a 74-per-cent share of the spirits market and a 50-per-cent share of the beer market, according to Credit Suisse. The Thai firm will put 80 million shares or 0.32 per cent of its total issued shares on offer, all of which will come from Sirivadhanabhakdi family's existing holdings.

Previously, DTAC, another Thai telecom firm, increased its daily liquidity volumes by 300 per cent from US$1 million (Bt35 million) to $4 million via dual listing on both Thai and Singapore bourses.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is expected to take a month and a half to consider ThaiBev's new application for dual listing.

According to Credit Suisse, there is no downside risk from such an application, except that the company's reputation could be damaged if the new attempt is unsuccessful again. As a defensive play for investors, the firm has outperformed the market by 28 per cent over the past month.

It is currently traded at 12.8 times the fiscal 2009 earnings.

Credit Suisse gives ThaiBev a neutral rating.

If the dual listing is successful, shareholders on the Singapore bourse may manually transfer ThaiBev shares to SET, which takes about a week to process.

Like DTAC, the listing on SET will likely improve ThaiBev's daily liquidity volumes.

The listing on SET would also entitle ThaiBev to a 5 per cent corporate tax dispensation for five years.

However, as a holding company, ThaiBev would not benefit from the tax saving, because there is no double taxation from dividends received from its subsidiaries, according to a Credit Suisse report.

The report suggests that the size of the mob opposing ThaiBev's new bid for dual listing will eventually convince the SEC if it should listen to the public opinion over ThaiBev's lawful rights for listing.

Outperforming the market by 28 per cent over the past month, ThaiBev is seen as a safe haven amidst the global financial turmoil.


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