
The trade balance in September registered a surplus of US$133 million (Bt4.6 billion), com
¬pared to a deficit of $781.5 million the previous month.Stronger export growth in September was part¬ly due to the low base in September 2007. Based on monthonmonth changes during the past six years, exports in September grew 4.1 per cent month on month on average. However, September 2007 exports contracted 3.9 per cent month on month, providing a low base for September 2008 yearonyear growth.
Stronger exports of principal manufacturing products (13.9 per cent on year in September, com¬pared to 6.8 per cent in August) was a major driv¬er for the increase.
Nonoil exports grew 18 per cent on year in September (up from 11.5 per cent in August) and contributed about 17.1 percentage points to head¬line export growth.
By product, major export growth drivers were refined fuels (74 per cent in September, compared to 141 per cent in August), motor vehicles (25 per cent in September, 48 per cent in Aug), rubber (56 per cent in September, 35 per cent in August), rice (80 per cent in September, 120 per cent in August), and iron and steel (61 per cent in September, 7 per cent in August), together contributed almost 10 percentage points of headline figures.
By market, major export destinations still grew at a reasonable rate. Exports to the US in September grew 10.4 per cent on year (compared to 6.3 per cent in August), EU grew 10.1 per cent (5.4 per cent), Japan grew 20.3 per cent (23.2 per cent), and Asean grew 32.4 per cent (14 per cent).
Major import items were jewellery (up 339 per cent on year in September, compared to 295 per cent in August), iron and steel products (up 117 per cent in September, 63 per cent in August), chem¬icals (grew 77 per cent, 21 per cent in August), crude oil (grew 33 per cent in September, 52 per cent in August), and natural gas (34 per cent in August), together contributed about 27.4 percentage points of 39.4percent headline figures.
By structure, import growth accelerated across all categories. Imports of capital goods grew 14.2 per cent, compared to 6.1 per cent in August. Imports of consumer goods grew 41.6 per cent, accelerated from 19.6 per cent. Imports of raw materials and intermediate goods grew 59.2 per cent, compared to 34.8 per cent in August.
SCBS Economic Research expects exports to decelerate this quarter in light of the economic slowdown in Thailand
's major trading partners. But continuing strong imports of raw materials and intermediate goods, coupled with the baht's depreciation, could provide a cushion for a sharp drop in export growth.