More political confrontation after Ratchadaphisek case : academics

The case is in the national spotlight as a critical point that could turn into conflict or vary the temperature of the political situation.

Pojaman Land Purchase

Head of Chulalongkorn University's department of government, Chaiyan Chaiyaporn, said no matter what the court's decision, the degree of political temperature in the community is likely to increase.

The suggestion that all sides would accept the verdict cannot be a guaranteed reaction on the day, he said.

If the court finds Thaksin and his wife guilty, the PAD will be happy as it would be the first time Thaksin had been convicted after the filing of many cases against him. The pro-government Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship could oppose the verdict, he said. On the other hand, if the verdict finds the defendants not guilty, PAD could be unhappy and stage more rallies.

"No matter what the verdict, I believe the pressure will be on security agencies right after the verdict delivery. They would have to take care of the peace of the country and comply with the laws. There is a possibility both sides might object to the verdict," he said.

Independent political scientist Sukhum Nualsakul said if the court finds Thaksin guilty, PAD should be pleased and reduce its opposition against the government. However, the party would be unlikely to stop protesting against Thaksin's nominee while it continues to demand a change in Thai politics - the so-called new politics. The public would then question PAD as to why it continues its tactics to obstruct the government.

On the other hand, if the court says Thaksin is not guilty, the government would be encouraged to go ahead with its work, despite the number of cases against Thaksin yet to come. In the meantime, the PAD would continue to rally, he said.

Sombat Thamrongtanyawong, president of the National Institute of Development Administration, said if the court declares he is not guilty, Thaksin could come back to defend himself in the other cases he faces. His supporters would also be encouraged and have reason to back him. Even though the People Power Party was dissolved, the MPs could get together and join another party. The PAD, meanwhile, would not be able to do much as it must accept the court's verdict.

However, if Thaksin is found guilty, he would not be able to return to Thailand without risking arrest. PAD would gain more weight to protest. Whether PAD would stop protesting in that case would be up to the party's administration. The government would be hard tested -while the DAAD would face questioning on its continued support for Thaksin.

Nevertheless, Sombat said, violence could break out at any time, regardless of the verdict.

Another Chulalongkorn University political scientist, Trakul Meechai, said Thais would learn a lot from such a historic case. As a lecturer, he would discuss with students why Thaksin was found guilty and how corrupt politicians would have to pay. On the other hand, if Thaksin is found not guilty, he would have to discuss how the case was processed.

Somehow, PAD must accept the verdict while the government too should restrain from making any moves that would only hurt itself, he said.

Trakul said the Ratchadaphisek land verdict cannot influence Thaksin's other cases, but it could be an example for politicians not to contemplate corruption.