How PM might ride out NCCC ruling

However, if Somchai somehow pulls off a miracle and manages to ride out the post-October 7 storm, here is what will likely happen regarding the NCCC ruling.

What is the ruling all about?

The NCCC said Somchai had committed serious disciplinary violations in 1999 when he was the permanent secretary for the Justice Ministry. He had been accused of neglecting to punish two senior justice officials from the Legal Execution Department who wrongfully waived a 5-per-cent fee on the auction of two land plots worth Bt897 million, as per the order of the Pathum Thani Provincial Court.

The NCCC ruling found Somchai guilty of negligence, and he faces mandatory dismissal.

How is this affecting Somchai's status as prime minister?

It affects him considerably, because an MP who is a former official can lose his parliamentary status if he gets punished for wrongdoings committed during his time in the bureaucracy.

But, and this is a big BUT, several steps will have to be taken in the civil-service disciplinary proceedings that can shield Somchai for years.

What are those steps and the factors that could prolong the case?

According to our newsroom's civil-service specialist, Avudh Panananda, if Somchai is going to get punished, it will happen on a day that none of us will even care about. Here's why:

1. The NCCC report will be forwarded to the Justice Ministry's Civil Service Committee, which will have to decide how or if he will be punished.

2. As Justice Minister Somsak Kiartsuranont is a known Somchai ally and the chairman of the ministry's committee in charge of disciplinary affairs, we can expect a long, silent period.

3. Should Somchai decide to appeal his punishment or the ministry decides to grant leniency, the case will be reviewed by the Civil Service Commission (CSC), chaired by the prime minister.

4. The CSC's review means sending the case back to the ministry's disciplinary committee.

5. The CSC has the discretion to endorse or reject the committee's report. The appellate review might take up to five years.

6. The CSC has overturned the NCCC's findings and vetoed disciplinary punishment before. In a high-profile case, the CSC reinstated former Treasury Department chief Nibhat Bhukkanasut following his dismissal as per an NCCC report.