Time bombs ticking away in Somchai's political undergrowth

The PAD realises if the country's election system remains as it is, then any political party founded by ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra will win an election, no matter what its name.

Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat also realises whatever path he chooses - be it resignation or dissolution of the House of Representatives - the PAD will not end its protests until it achieves its goal.

Despite heavy pressure from protesters following last week's Black October clash, Somchai has said he will decide his future when the time is right. But when will that be?

In his mind, Somchai wants to hold onto his post as long as possible. However, there are many time bombs ticking away in the present political environment, any one of which may force him to make a quick decision.

First, the PAD's next move. If there is any violence, or another crackdown, it is likely Somchai will be ousted.

Second, the National Counter Corruption Commission (NCCC) today will decide whether to indict Somchai for alleged dereliction of duty. The case relates to Somchai's past role as permanent secretary of the Justice Ministry. If he is found guilty, the pressure on him will mount considerably.

Third, the apparent failure of efforts to set up a new Constitution Drafting Assembly as a means to end the political crisis. The prime minister, opposition leader and Senate and House speakers agreed on the matter two weeks ago. Then violence hit Bangkok's streets on October 7, and the Democrat Party has decided to boycott next Monday's follow-up meeting.

Fourth, the Supreme Court's Criminal Division for Political Office Holders next Tuesday will read its verdict in the Ratchadaphisek land case against the prime minister's brother-in-law, Thaksin, and his wife, Pojaman. The stakes are very high for Thaksin's regime if he and his wife are found guilty.

Fifth, the controversial Preah Vihear case. The Samak Sundaravej Cabinet - including Somchai Wongsawat - is being impeached by the NCCC. They are accused of failing to comply with a constitutional requirement that the government seek parliamentary endorsement for any international agreement affecting the country's territorial areas. If the NCCC indicts the Samak Cabinet, then Somchai and others accused must suspend their duties immediately.

Sixth, the dissolution cases against political parties. The Constitution Court on Tuesday decided to launch three separate judicial reviews of electoral-fraud cases, punishable by party dissolution. They involve the People Power, Chart Thai and Matchima Thipataya parties. The court will likely rule on these about the end of the year at the earliest.

All of these issues exclude the immediate time bomb: responsibility for the Black October incident. Apparently, Somchai is showing no sign of accepting any part of the responsibility.