Road to a national unity govt fraught with problems

MPs of the People Power Party's Isaan Pattana faction are already dis¬cussing the possibility of an imminent House dissolution. This comes just seven days after October 7, when two died and more than 400 were injured in a bloodbath and when Somchai pre¬sented his government's policies in Parliament.

Core leaders of coalition partners such as Chart Thai and Puea Pandin have also realised that it is no longer wise to continue hanging on to a sink¬ing ship. Even army chief Gen Anupong Paochinda has signalled that the government should be held fully responsible for the bloodshed.

Maybe October 7 could be consid¬ered the beginning of an end for Somchai. In Thai politics, a govern¬ment cannot survive once it has killed protesters on the streets - the public opinion turns against it right away.

As premier, Somchai cannot deny the responsibility. Even national police chief Patcharawat Wongsuwan expressed his regrets on Monday.

However, the situation is not quite that simple.

Both People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) leaders and some elements in the Somchai government wanted to trigger violence so the mil¬itary would have to step in and end the game.

PAD leader LtGeneral Chamlong Srimuang's explicit surrender on October 6 was a clear signal that a showdown was imminent. And the Somchai government, reading the move clearly, decided to take the bait - leading to bloody clashes between protesters and the police.

So, what stance did Gen Anupong take during this tense period? It was ambiguous at best. On the one hand, the military was going to provide secu¬rity for protesters, but on the other hand, it was ready to go along with the government.

As a move to support the govern¬ment, Anupong stationed some 3,000 military officers at nearby Sanam Suapa in case the police needed rein¬forcements.

Still the bloody suppression of the protesters did not involve the military at all - the show was run by the city and border patrol police forces.

Much to the anger of PAD, Anupong was seen as taking Somchai's said. PAD leader Sondhi Limthongkul even announced that Gen Anupong did not belong to "the people".

It was not until four days after the violent incident that Anupong came out on Friday to blame the govern¬ment, saying the authorities should bear the responsibility.

Once again he vowed that there was no way he would stage a military coup. In fact, he also said that the police had instigated the violence in order to lead to a coup. Surprisingly though, Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyudh - who resigned as deputy prime minister after the October 7 incident - said a military coup was the only way out of the cri¬sis.

At times of crises, it is the army chief who usually has all the aces up his sleeve. He can either stage a coup to end the crisis, or he can use his power to force out the government.

This, however, has not been the case with Gen Anupong - who seems to hold all the power but does not seem to be able to dictate the political situ¬ation.

The PAD's ultimate aim is to change the course of Thai politics by wresting power from the Thaksin Shinawatradominated PPP via any means possi¬ble. However, since the end justifies the means, they would not be walking away empty handed.

Thaksin is in the process of apply¬ing for political asylum in Britain, and any violence in Thailand would only justify his application.

The police force's heavyhanded tactics of shooting dangerous and lowquality Chinesemade tear gas at the crowd was also aimed at forcing the military to organise a coup, which in turn would make Thaksin's application more appealing.

In effect, both the PAD and some elements in the Somchai government want the military to step in and end the game, albeit for different reasons, while the army chief is caught between both sides wondering which way to turn.

But then Somchai doesn't know which way to go either. If he were to resign and make way for a proxy prime minister like Sompong Amornwiwat - the new government would die because stability at present is at its low¬est. If he were to dissolve Parliament, he might face a hostile Senate, which is already plotting to change the course of politics.

However, the politicians them¬selves would continue flourishing.

Members of the ruling PPP are already preparing for an exodus to the Puea Thai Party led by Finance Minister Suchart Thadathamrongvech. Puea Thai would serve as a second incarnation of the Thai Rak Thai Party in the event that its first incarnation, the PPP, is dis¬banded.

Plus a faction of PPP MPs will be breaking away. Already there's talk of a new party called Suvarnabhumi being formed under the auspices of Newin Chidchob, who apparently has soured his ties with first lady Yaowapa and Yongyuth Tiyapairat, both of whom are close to the "man in London".

Meanwhile, elements from the mil¬itary are reported to have struck a deal with Newin - through banned TRT party member Sudarat Keyuraphan - to back the Suvarnabhumi Party. The military is obviously tempted to enter politics during the postcrisis elections.

When its time for polls, both Suvarnabhumi and Puea Thai would win by a sweepstake again. Plus they can go fishing for Chart Thai and Matchima Tipataya MPs in case the parties are disbanded on grounds of election fraud. And, with all this hap¬pening, Democrats would get left out in the cold again.

Perhaps, at this juncture, it's best for the PAD and some elements from the Senate to steer the course of politics away from the election game by pro¬viding a catalyst for the formation of a national unity government.

Meanwhile, all we can do is wait and see what happens next.