A little mistake can easily become a back-breaking blunder

Mutual trust, essential to any negotiation, evaporated because the government appeared to be paying just lip service to the idea of reconciliation as police was rounding up People's Alliance for Democracy leaders on Friday and Sunday.

Even though arrest warrants against nine PAD leaders were issued two months ago, the police only just decided to go into action and take Chaiwat Sinsuwong and Chamlong Srimuang into custody, calling the arrests a straightforward law enforcement that was not politically motivated.

Nevertheless, many question their timing, which curiously coincided with reconciliation talks.

As the government and the PAD drift further apart, the country continues plunging into the bottomless pit of uncertainty. Repercussions from irreconcilable government-PAD differences are too horrible to anticipate, and street protests may become a permanent fixture on the political scene.

More importantly, the festering political rifts might complicate political reform - seen as a viable option to put politics back on course - and animosity will only persist with no end in sight.

However, two things happened on Friday afternoon that might alter the course of politics.

In the first incident, Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat attended a high-level meeting with House Speaker Chai Chidchob, Senate Speaker Prasopsuk Boondet and opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva. At the meeting, the four agreed to amend the charter's Article 291 to allow the formation of a Constitution Drafting Assembly, which would be tasked with bringing about political reforms.

The agreement was heralded as a glimmer of hope, even a political breakthrough in light of the three developments: a road map for reforms; a closed-door meeting between Somchai and Privy Council President Prem Tinsulanonda; and government negotiations with the PAD. 

However, hours after the agreement was reached, police arrested Chaiwat who was leaving the home of Democrat MP Kraisak Choonhavan - an action Kraisak roundly blamed Somchai for.

Abhisit and his fellow Democrats also cast doubts on Somchai, saying he might be taking a two-faced stance on the PAD and the reforms.

According to the Democrats, Somchai appears to be pushing for reconciliation as well as bullying the PAD at the same time. He also seems to be supporting the CDA, though he is refusing to drop the draft charter advanced by anti-coup activist Weng Tojirakarn.

Still, People Power Party lawmakers have been rallying behind Somchai, strongly dismissing any doubts on his sincerity.

However, as coalition and opposition lawmakers get busy exchanging barbs, the role of the man in London seems to have slipped through the political radar. It is an open secret that former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra is disdainful of the PAD.

Though Chaiwat's arrest coincided with the crucial juncture to jumpstart reconciliation, it might be intended as a lesson for the PAD and not to sabotage the negotiations as such.

When Deputy Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchiayudh dispatched his aide General Pirat Samipak to conduct exploratory talks with Chamlong, he floated the idea of dropping all charges in exchange for a settlement.

However, Chavalit might have overstepped his mandate as understood by Thaksin, Somchai and the main coalition party, which in turn triggered the police to move in on Chaiwat and remind the PAD about its place in the larger scheme of things.

But this action may have backfired because Chamlong raised the ante by walking right into the police, making his arrest unavoidable.

Tensions have only flared up with more PAD supporters surging into Government House, while all prospects for a CDA-led political change being jeopardised. Like past blunders, a bad mistake can often be attributed to political misjudgement.