Time running out for the government and opposition

His utterance yesterday that he had no idea about his brother-in-law in exile, Thaksin Shinawatra, officially applying for political asylum from the British government, was the latest in a series of denials of knowledge about events surrounding his government.

The other day, he said he had no advance knowledge about the arrest of Chaiwat Sinsuwong, a second-tier leader of the People's Alliance for Democracy.

Prior to that, Somchai said he knew nothing about the move by a group of pro-government activists to present a draft constitution for House perusal, which was quickly accepted by the House Speaker.

If he is not a great pretender and a smooth practitioner of low-key treachery, then we really do have a national leader who is not well informed at all. This will lead to grave national risks simply because he is unpredictable.

Does he care about all of this? So far, what he has displayed when faced with an unpleasant situation is a sheepish smile. His modesty is in sharp contrast to the combative style of his predecessor Samak Sundaravej.

By being passive and keeping cool, he may be able to disarm opponents and reduce the intensity of public opposition to his government.

This leads to more questions. Is he working for the public interest and the well-being of the people? Is he in fact doing everything for family members, cronies and some partisan interests while holding the highest public office in the land?

Somchai has yet to present a government policy statement to Parliament, even though this is just a perfunctory formality. In the first week, most of what he did concerned personal and family affairs, such as visiting his birthplace and his wife's home province.

In both places he was hounded and heckled by the supporters of the PAD, causing embarrassment and awkwardness - his first taste of hate politics resulting from his close relationship with Thaksin.

His low-key and soft approach to provocation and conflict make his adversaries wonder about his true feelings. By ignoring all accusations of misdeeds by himself and his family members - responding only with silence or a limited comment - Somchai has managed to prevent any possible escalation of these controversies.

Now that Thaksin has officially sought political asylum in Britain, Somchai can proceed with the systematic demolition of the PAD through the legal powers of the police and the Office of the Attorney-General, all part of the judicial process.

The police are dealing with the PAD's leaders with serious charges of treason and other criminal offences, while at the same time some prosecutors have been regarded as the main forces in stalling cases against Thaksin and his cronies.

The arrest of PAD leader Maj-General Chamlong Srimuang could eventually lead to further confrontation between a growing number of anti-government protesters and Somchai's government - with all the legal machinery on Somchai's side. Whether that eventually leads to a decisive power play depends on the intensity of events dictated by both sides. 

Somchai holds all the advantages because he represents legal authority - and the entire police force is eager to serve the powers-that-be. The PAD protesters are frustrated by the passive response of the ruling Cabinet.

But time is not on both sides. The PAD has a problem maintaining a crowd large enough to safeguard its siege of Government House after four months, though the arrest of Chamlong has triggered another massive gathering. The PAD leaders still have to weigh carefully how to deal a decisive blow against the Somchai government.

Somchai and his crowd have pending criminal charges threatening their future, with the risk of jail terms for many. If they can weed out the protest leaders and reclaim Government House without bloodshed, they can expect to stay in power while trying to dilute the potency of the legal proceedings through their connections and experience.

The fate of both sides still hangs in the balance. Both sides await court proceedings, from which a number of judgements have already been made against Thaksin and his network of cronies. Time is of the essence, and this could lead to reckless decisions on either side.

The public can pin its hopes on the bench from which justice has been served so far, even though it took a painfully long time. The people must see to it that such due process cannot be obstructed or abused through bribery, as has been tried (but failed) in the past.