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Looking back one year ago, it was hard to hold back tears at what the Burmese military junta did to its own people. It was this week last year that thousands of monks, nuns, students and ordinary people poured to the streets of Rangoon and braved the security forces and their brutality. The army and police opened fire on peaceful demonstrators, killing dozens. There was outrage all over the world. And, yet, the Rangoon regime stood firm and carried on doing what it does best: intensifying the suppression of the Burmese people. The generals, hiding in their upcountry bunkers, knew full well that the fate of the demonstrators would not occupy the evening news for too long. The international community has too many of its own problems to ponder. It only responds to immediate issues at hand, and its span of attention is also very brief.

Then, Cyclone Nargis became a blessing in disguise for the regime. It gave the generals all the necessary time they needed to regain their posture, as the UN agencies and all other international organisations, humanitarian or not, had to beg to be allowed inside the devastated areas in the Irrawaddy Delta. They have all been willing to accommodate the regime's wishes and decrees. That has been the fault-line that nobody wants to raise.

Of course, the nearly 3 million Burmese victims of the storm have continued to suffer because they have to depend entirely on the junta's helping hand. Whoever the recipients are of such assistance, they will have a high price to pay in the future. Whatever they do today and in the future will be closely monitored.

The junta has successfully used stringent rules to screen international workers and journalists who want to gain entry into the country. Complicated foreign exchange regimes have also enriched the junta's coffers. Obviously, no official from any international organisation would have the courage to give a frank assessment of money lost through the Burmese foreign exchanges. They would simply say it was for a good cause, to relieve the suffering of victims. Suffice to say, the junta is richer today than ever before, even though the economic malaise that plagued the country before the massive demonstrations last year continues unabated, with inflation as high as 50 per cent.

This helps to explain why the junta leaders are more confident than before in suppressing their own people and carrying out their specially designed "roadmaps". Just recently, the Burmese authorities arrested Nilar Thien, a leader of the 1988 student group. More and more students activists have been were arrested without making newspaper headlines. The regime has completely ignored the international community's appeal for the release of Aung San Suu Kyi and nearly 2,000 political prisoners. It knows deep in its heart that nobody outside the country can do anything about it.

If the junta leaders steer clear of internal discord, they can carry on and stay put. Just look at Asean and its current attitude towards Burma. After its strong statements expressing revulsion at the regime for using violence against its own people last September, the grouping is now claiming success in leading the humanitarian effort inside Burma. Since its admission to Asean in 1997, Burma has been pulling the regional grouping down and causing rifts among its members. So far, Rangoon has been calling all the shots, using ratification of the grouping's much-cherished first charter as a bargaining chip.

The regime has set up a nationwide poll which will rubberstamp its heartless governance. Like May's national referendum on the poll, the rigged outcome of the planned 2010 election will be used to legitimise the junta. The Burmese generals know they will get away scot-free because no country will pay close attention for very long. Unless we prove them wrong. To do that, we have to start acting now.