Political situation to improve under PM Somchai : NIDA rector

Q : What do you expect under the new prime minister?

A : The political situation will improve. Somchai is gentle and conciliatory. He is likely to approach the leaders of the People's Alliance for Democracy for talks to end current political turmoil.

Q : Is Somchai the best choice in the ruling People Power Party [the others being Sompong Amornwiwat and Surapong Suebwonglee]?

A : All three have their strengths and weaknesses, but Somchai got a push directly from Thaksin Shinawatra because he is his brother-in-law. I can see that in the People Power Party, support from Thaksin is necessary for people who want power in the party.

Q : Somchai's personality is far different from predecessor Samak Sundaravej. Do you think this will have any impact?

A : Somchai's conciliatory personality will have a big impact on efforts to ease the crisis. So far he has brought down the political temperature. However, one weakness is that too much compromise will prevent pro-active moves to solve problems, which will have a negative effect on the country.

Q : How long will his government survive?

A : The government's longevity depends on two factors: the ability to lessen political conflict and the ability to solve economic problems, particularly people's well-being, which are worsening as a result of the financial meltdown in the United States. The government must also have the ability to solve the existing problems, such as the insurgency in the South and high oil prices.

These problems require much effort. If the administration can solve them, I think it will survive this year. If not, it is likely that we will see dissolution of the House of Representatives within the year.

Q : What factors could improve the political situation?

A : It will improve as long as the government doesn't make any moves that expand the current dispute. These include amendment of the Constitution or any action that would benefit former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra in his court cases. If the government doesn't avoid these acts, opposition will grow and the government will be forced to dissolve the House.

Q : What is your view of the PAD rally now?

A : If the government can refrain from doing anything that will worsen the conflict, such as amending the Constitution or helping Thaksin, the PAD's allegations will have less weight, and finally the PAD will need to find ways to compromise and end its rally.

Q : As a former teacher of Army chief General Anupong Paochinda, have you consulted with him about the situation?

A : General Anupong has never sought my advice about politics. However, when I meet him at public functions, I sometimes chat with him about the country's situation. I think he is capable enough to set his roles in different situations. For example, after a state of emergency was declared Anupong made good moves to prevent violence.