No Honeymoon period for new PM

Yes, he's likeable. Yes, he may even be sincere about reconcilation. But even the new prime minister himself knows that he can't expect a honeymoon with the Thai public. A one-night stand at best.

How long can he last?

Our very accommodating newsroom gives him three months. This time-frame is based primarily on the election fraud case against the People Power Party that could lead to its dissolution. We expect a final ruling before year's end.

Supposing the PPP makes a miraculous escape, Somchai surviving the People's Alliance for Democracy's no-holds-barred campaign, infighting within the ruling party and repercussions of his brother-in-law Thaksin Shinawatra's court cases remains a far-fetched fantasy.

And stimulants for an early downfall are aplenty. Here's a Do and Don't list complied by our Political Desk if Somchai wants to celebrate Chrismas as Thailand's chief executive still:

1) Keep Chalerm Yoobamrung away from the Cabinet. Rumours have it that he could be justice minister but make sure that it could only happen over your dead body.

2) Don't listen to the PPP hardliners who are making noises again calling for a charter amendment. If Government House was seized and Thais started shooting at each other because a cat-loving politician who loves cooking announced he wanted to change the Constitution, imagine what could happen if a similar announcement was made by someone who is married to a sister of "that man" in London.

3)  Set up a Cabinet with semblance of credibility. This is tough, with the Newin faction making all kinds of threat, but the truth remains that the risk of the government's early demise is proportionate with the number of Newinesque figures in the ministerial line-up.

4) Do not interfere with Thaksin's court cases.

5) If Olarn Chaipravat doesn't balk, pick him as finance minister.

6) Give the Bangkok Mass Transit Authority's NGV bus project a very serious attention. It's extremely fishy and can be a political timebomb.

7) Leave the military alone.

8) If the urge to follow the address-the-nation-on-TV-every-week trend proves irresistable, watch replays of Samak Sundaravej's footages and learn from his mistakes.

9) Invite PAD leaders to dinner at Government House. Oops, sorry, at your office.

10) Revoke the passports of Thaksin and his wife. Come on now. They will understand and it will go a long way to demonstrating your "sincerity" and "neutrality". Moreover, it's not like England will deport them overnight.

Prime Minister Somchai, if you follow these steps, we are quite confident that Chrismas is not an unrealistic target. We wish you all the best. And, welcome to the party!