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rising farm incomes, low prices, high fiscal cost

An interview with Charoen Pokphand Group chairman and chief executive officer Dhanin Chearavanont appears in this month's edition of Forbes Asia.



The magazine wanted to get his thoughts on his argument that when oil prices started to skyrock¬et, the government should have increased publicservice salaries to match those of the private sector and should not have stepped in to hold prices at current levels, but should have allowed market mechanisms to take their natural course.

He said this would lead to high¬er produce prices and farmers' incomes would go up, their spend¬ing of which would benefit all.

Forbes Asia did not dwell on the details of the theory, but focused on Dhanin's views on how to main¬tain rice prices. In a paragraph, Dhanin said rice prices were intentionally low to benefit urban peo¬ple.

"Seventy to 80 per cent of Asia's population is engaged in agriculture. So, ending poverty in Asia must start with agricultural prices. In Thailand in particular, rice farmers are poor because the price of rice has been intentional¬ly kept low so that the urban population can consume inex¬pensive rice," he said.

However, some economists disagree.

Rice prices have never been intentionally kept low, as govern¬ments usually step in to shore up prices.

It's easy to see that wins a lot of support because farmers can sell rice to the government at higherthanmarket rates.

The ricepledging scheme - which was approved by the Samak Sundaravej government - is an example. The government offers to buy rice at Bt14,000 per tonne, when the market price is below Bt10,000.

In effect, if the main crop is as high as 8 million tonnes, as expected, the government will need to spend more than Bt100 billion for the current ricepledging programme.

Given a market price of below Bt10,000 a tonne, that means a loss of some Bt32 billion.

It is interesting. Amid budget constraints, how will the government address this debt? Certainly, the amount is sufficient for the construction of a new electric train line or a highway.

But that's the government's problem.

Dhanin can rest happy that farmers' incomes will rise in a market where prices are low.

His dream has come true.


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