Five scenarios for selecting PM

Under "Formula 1", Samak will defy the court order by trying to stage a comeback.

Kuthep Saikrachang, spokesman for the People Power Party (233 MPs), vowed that his party would nominate Samak in Parliament and vote him back into power because the Constitution does not prohibit a disqualified prime minister from returning to high office again. Samak is still an MP.

But Borwornsak Uwanno, a noted public law expert, said the law might offer a loophole for Samak to return to the premier's post but ethically speaking it's another matter.

"If I were him, I would not return to power because it would be difficult to explain to the whole world after the Constitution Court's ruling. It should be a case of profound ethical conscience," he said.

Suthep Thuagsuban, secretary-general of the Democrat Party, also said Samak should not seek power again because he has lost legitimacy and credentials. The Opposition Democrats would be waiting for the coalition partners to spell out their position first, he added.

The possibility of Samak regaining his premier's badge is very low. The People Power Party is also fed up with him because he was considered an outsider, who had not invested a single baht to become the party leader.

Samak is also fighting a libel suit, which could blow out his political career forever. The Appeals Court is scheduled to read its verdict on September 25 after the lower court found Samak guilty and sentenced him to a prison term.

Formula 2 will see People Power nominating Somchai Wongsawat, Surapong Suebwonglee or Sompong Amornwiwat as PM. The first two are closer to ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra. There is a greater possibility that People Power will strive for this political course in order to maintain its grip on power.

But a Somchai or Surapong nomination will still face fierce opposition from the People's Alliance for Democracy, whose members have laid siege to Government House since August 26. The PAD has demanded Samak's resignation and also the People Power's exit from government. If Sompong won the party's nomination, he might be more acceptable to them.

Formula 3 finds Banharn Silapa-archa of the Chart Thai Party (34 MPs) anxiously waiting in the wings to become prime minister again. He served the post briefly in 1996. Banharn tried to shoot for the top slot earlier this year when he joined hands with other smaller parties to bargain against People Power and also the Democrats.

Banharn can see his wish come true only if People Power agrees to step back to ease the political pressure.

Formula 4 has Abhisit Vejjajiva of the Democrat Party (164 MPs) taking over as prime minister. This will happen if all the coalition partners abandon People Power to back Abhisit's bid. A Democrat-led coalition government will hold a thin majority in Parliament with 247 MPs against People Power's 223, making it difficult for it to survive until early next year.

Sombat Thamrongthanwong, rector of the National Institute for Development Administration, has called for the five coalition partners to jump ship and join the Democrat Party in forming a new government because this is the only channel to heal the deep wounds in Thai politics.

"It is now a golden opportunity for the coalition partners to salvage the national crisis," he said.

In Formula 5, all the political parties agree to form a National Unity Government for the sake of national reconciliation. Still, they will need to pick one candidate from their parties to become PM. An outsider is almost unimaginable because Parliament needs to fix the Constitution first.