No obvious winner in a damaging political stalemate

Each camp has tried but failed to heave the other out with all its might. A state of emergency in Bangkok could not scare protesters into leaving Government House. The PAD was in turn unable to dislodge the government by rousing the crowds.

Regardless of its well-organised street protests and threats to disrupt essential services, the PAD could not manage to incite an uprising nor effect change via parliamentary means.

Although the government has an armada of legal tools and crowd-control measures, none seems to be working effectively.

Emotions remain high but practical minds have started to drill some sense into the opposing sides.

At this juncture, no one could forecast with a degree of certainty how the fight will end. It is evident, however, that the political turmoil has bottomed out and that it will neither degenerate into anarchy or trigger a collapse of the political system.

From this point on, it is a matter of time and commitment from all parties concerned to sort out the political mess and wreckage so as to enable the country to advance.

One scenario - military intervention to seize power and restore normalcy - has been an overrated, overplayed talking tough that yields nothing but confusion.

Many rush to presume about power grabbing even before assessing unfolding events and the military-government power balance.

If remarks by Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej and Army chief General Anupong Paochinda are viewed with skepticisms, then political commentators should factor in a key meeting in order to shed light on the coup debate.

Following last Tuesday's fatal clash between opposing crowds, royal chief adviser General Prem Tinsulanonda was granted a royal audience. Afterwards Prem met with top commanders.

Prem's message is crystal clear - soldiers are to safeguard peace and social order and not to step in to the political fray.With common sense and reason thrown out of the window, the country's revered institution has always acted with subtlety to put things back on course.

The military would cushion opposing camps to facilitate a conflict resolution but stop short of meddling. Without a knight coming for a rescue, parties concerned would have to realise in time that they are obliged to solve the very problem they created.

Misery and uncertainty will persist so long as the opposing camps try to dig deeper trenches to fight rather than negotiate a solution.

The negotiated settlement will definitely take time. But at least it offers a glimmer of hope from the despair caused by the political quagmire.Presently there are three platforms to bring about the resumption of normalcy.

One is the mediation process led by Senate Speaker Prasopsuk Boondet and sanctioned by House Speaker Chai Chidchob and opposition leader Abhisit Vejjajiva.

The other is the coalition's initiative to launch negotiations. Deputy Prime Minister Sanan Kachornprasart of Chart Thai Party is in charge of this.The final platform is the overture by the People Power Party to talk directly with the PAD.

If all three failed, then a national referendum might be the only option left to put politics back on course.

As the country is groping for its way out of the political quagmire, several possibilities could emerge.A new government under a new prime minister is a distinct possibility after the ending of street protests. Or the coalition alliance might collapse to force a snap election. Or there might be a coalition switch to favour the Democrats.

The country could opt for a time-consuming choice to hold a referendum to settle the differences. Whatever happens, Samak and the PAD are both probably destined for the historical bin.