Thailand slips further with emergency measures

For 105 diplomats from 67 countries, briefings on the political situation have become routine because of the uncertain domestic situation over the past few years. This time, every foreign mission, including international organisations with representatives residing here, came to the briefing.

Questions fielded by diplomats at the briefing showed the serious concerns over the future of Thailand and its rule of law. Their enquiries were focused on technical aspects, the impact of the emergency decree on them, as well as on Thai people in general and foreign tourists. Several thousand tourists were affected by the brief closures of regional airports in Hat Yai and Phuket. Tourists there were stranded and their travel plans disrupted, and nobody was held responsible. If this situation continues, it will adversely affect the tourism industry in the months and years to come.

The Foreign Ministry's permanent secretary, Virasakdi Futrakul, took great pains in explaining that the controversial decree was aimed at preventing a recurrence of violence. One person was killed and 34 were injured during violent clashes in the early hours of Tuesday, which led Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej to declare the state of emergency in the Bangkok metropolitan area.

He carefully quoted what Army chief General Anupong Paochinda said at his press conference three hours earlier: that the Army's main role in this emergency period will be restricted to helping the police force maintain public order and safety. The Army has made it clear that it will not get involved in the political quagmire.

"Anupong is one of the few gentlemen in the Army that we respect," said a Western diplomat, who asked for anonymity because he was not authorised to comment publicly.

Bangkok-based diplomats also wondered if there would be any restriction on their activities and movements. The answer was no. It will be business as usual. Virasakdi added that the emergency decree is only a temporary measure, which has been limited to the capital with specific areas affected, and it can be lifted when need be.

Some diplomats recalled a similar briefing at the Foreign Ministry following the protest by the Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship in front of General Prem Tinsulanonda's residence last July - the same group that clashed with the People's Alliance for Democracy. At the time, the ministry had to explain why the coup-installed government would not declare a state of emergency, as it would adversely affect the country's image and reputation.

Additional interviews with diplomats attending the briefing revealed mixed feelings about the prospects for Thai political development in the near term. While diplomats universally praised Anupong's repeated pledges of the non-use of force to solve the crisis, they are still very perplexed by the lack of law enforcement in the country. They do not buy the notion that the imposed emergency measures will have no impact on the local and foreign communities. Otherwise, why would the government bother to impose the decree in the first place? It reflects a deeper malaise in Thai society and political culture.

The first casualty of diplomacy was the cancellation of Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi's scheduled visit here next week. If he had proceeded, it would have made him the first foreign minister to visit the country under emergency rule. Fortunately, the Asean senior officials' meeting scheduled for this week in Hua Hin will go ahead as planned. Samak has already postponed foreign trips to Japan and Russia.

One Asean diplomat expressed serious concern over the timetable for ratification of the Asean Charter by the Thai Parliament, which is currently in session. In early August, Samak pledged to Asean secretary-general Dr Surin Pitsuwan that the process would be completed by mid-August. At present the vetting by a subcommittee has already delayed the charter's endorsement. However, with the political fluidity as it is today, a dissolution of Parliament could occur at any time if Samak so desires. That would drag the ratification process on further.

"It would be an irony if Thailand is the last member to ratify the charter," said the diplomat, who asked not to be named.

Countries that have pinned hopes on Thailand, as the Asean chair, to propel their cooperative schemes, both bilaterally and within the Asean context, have already become more recalcitrant. One obvious reason is because they cannot predict the next scenario in Thai politics or those who will be in power in the near future. No diplomat believed that Samak would be able to stay on until the Asean summit in the middle of December.

With or without the enforcement of the emergency decree, Thailand's reputation has already hit rock bottom. The decree must be abolished immediately if the country wants to get out of its present political quagmire. Even if it does, it will still take a long time to recover from the present state of humiliation.