Army chief holds the trump card

We should know the result over the next few days, as a clash of this massive scale can't be allowed to drag on for too long.

Political tension heightened yesterday after the Criminal Court agreed to a police request to issue arrest warrants against nine leaders of the PAD on charges of treason and creating unrest.

As soon as he heard about the arrest warrant against him, Chamlong Srimuang, one of the PAD's core leaders, calmly sat down in the middle of the crowd on the lawn in front of Government House.

The scene was reminiscent of the tragedy in May 1992, when he led a street protest against the Suchinda government and sat on Rajdamnoen Road before he was taken away by authorities on similar charges.

The other PAD leaders facing arrest include Sondhi Limthongkul, Pipop Thongchai, Somkiat Pongpaiboon, Somsak Kosaisuk, Suriyasai Katasila, Chaiwat Sinsuwong, Amorn Amornrattananont, and Therdpoom Chaidee.

Heads of the Alliance, in fact, welcomed the warrants, as it is likely to intensify the turmoil and focus attention on their actions.

Any hope they have of bringing down the Samak government through street protests depends critically on mass support over the next few days, particularly sympathy from the middleclass, as well as how the military opts to play the game in this predicament.

Several thousand PAD supporters have already taken over areas outside Government House, which is Thailand's equivalent of the White House. They have vowed to camp inside the compound until they succeed in ousting the Samak government for good and pushing for "new politics", whatever that means.

The PAD suffered an initial setback when video footage on Tuesday showed their members armed with weapons and cloaked in black, ambushing NBT, a TV news station run by the Public Relations Department. Somehow their game plan went out of control. But that was just the first round of this fight. The PAD is now trying more footwork to keep its momentum alive.

Samak has already become a lame duck prime minister. He has allowed the PAD to capture Government House. He has to hold meetings at the Army headquarters on the Chaeng Wattana Road, 20 kilometres away from downtown Bangkok.

He is looking at ways to strike back at the PAD. But how can he do it?

First, Samak may opt to sit back and do nothing. But this proposition is not feasible, as reclaiming Government House must be a top priority.

Second, Samak may need to bring in the Democratic Alliance Against Dictatorship. The DAAD "red shirts" may be enlisted to take on the PAD "yellow shirts". That would fuel further violence, but the end result would certainly not go his way.

Third, Samak must arrest the core leaders of the PAD, then find a way to quash their supporters inside Government House. This is what he's trying to do. The arrest warrants have been issued for the PAD's leaders. It's now the job of police to try to take these men away in handcuffs.

Fourth, Samak might in the end find it impossible to continue as premier. In this case, he can either resign from office to pave the way for Parliament to form a new government. Or he can dissolve Parliament to call a snap election.

For the PAD, its strategy is simple. It can withdraw from Government House and return to its camp at the Makkawan Rangsan Bridge. But this idea is out of the question as the PAD has decided to launch what it calls the "final war" and is going for broke.

Second, the PAD may want to fight a violent war in order to initiate political change.

Sources say the PAD wants Samak to step down to pave the way for Parliament to form a national government - with an outsider as prime minister. They want a new government to reform the country so it can make a break from "old politics" and the yoke of ousted prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Doing so would require a suspension of some articles in the Constitution.

The question is whether the military would go along with such a game plan. The latest military reshuffle, signed by Samak on Tuesday, has further strengthened Gen Anupong Paochinda, the Army chief, as the most powerful figure in Thailand. Whichever side he picks, that party will win in this power play. But at the moment, it's too hard to read his mind yet.