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The Bank of Thailand will likely raise its key interest rate for the last time in the current round at tomorrow's meeting after the Kingdom's economy in the second quarter registered lower-than expected growth of 5.3 per cent.

Markets expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to lift the one-day interest rate 25 basis points to ensure that inflation is kept under control, before keeping the policy rate at 3.75 per cent to support economic growth.

The MPC is, however, unlikely to reach a unanimous conclusion as it did at its last meeting, when Ampon Kittiamporn, secretary-general of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), was the only member to express any doubt about hiking the rate.

Ampon yesterday declined to comment on a further rise in the policy rate, but his statement implied that he did not want it to go up again.

He said the continued decline in oil prices and the government's six economic-stimulus measures would help keep inflation below 8 per cent in the second half of the year. However, inflation will continue to be high due to the base effect before calming down in the fourth quarter, he said.

Inflation averaged 6.6 per cent over the first seven months of the year.

The NESDB forecasts that inflation will come in at 6.5 to 7 per cent for the year, on an assumption that Dubai crude oil will average US$110 to $115 (Bt3,800 to Bt4,000).

"Inflation is under control, as it will not be as high [as now] for the whole year," said Ampon.

Usara Wialaipich, senior economist at Standard Chartered Bank (Thai), said the priority of central banks was no longer inflation but growth.

Many countries have been slipping into technical recession, which could in turn ultimately affect the Thai economy, she said.

Although the Kingdom's exports have generally registered rapid growth, some goods - notably integrated circuits - have posted negative export growth.

"If many countries slip into recession, the oil price cannot be sustained at the current level. Inflation [in Thailand] has already reached its peak, and the new problem is economic growth," she said.

Pornthep Jubandhu, senior economist at SCB Securities, said that although headline inflation had gradually declined, core inflation would remain high for a while. Producers have not fully passed their cost burden on to consumers.

There is a 50-per-cent chance the MPC will raise the policy rate again at its next meeting in October, he said.