New power-wielders emerge in the post Thaksin-era

Now that Thaksin Shinawatra, who brought Samak into office, has run away from the country for good, Samak no longer has anybody to listen to. In fact, he has paid only the slightest attention to Thaksin. He could be the Trojan horse that brought about Thaksin's downfall. Thaksin was lured back to the country only to be caught in the judicial system, which has destroyed him beyond any hope of repair. The chances of Thaksin returning to Thailand are almost zero.

 The question is whether Samak will chose to serve as prime minister for as long as possible in this term before retiring from politics, or whether he would want to continue to lead the party for another term. Now his bargaining power has increased quite significantly due to the infighting in the People Power Party.

We aren't sure about Samak's motivations yet. He is still a force to be reckoned with at this point. People Power Party MPs have vowed to vote him back as prime minister even if he were to be found guilty of drawing an income from the "Chim pai bon pai" TV programme while serving as prime minister. Samak has already cut his ties with the show.

Thaksin's departure has eased the Thai political situation markedly. The downside risk has bottomed out. The consensus is that Samak should be allowed to move the country forward. The judicial review has done its job. The conflict of the political structure at the highest level has been resolved. Now the politicians are left with the task of sorting out a new playing field in Thai politics.

Thaksin's exile has also created some divisions within the People Power Party, the members of which are vying for power realignments. As the dust of infighting has yet to settle, the role of Newin Chidchob becomes increasingly important. Newin has emerged as Thaksin's heir apparent. Although he has been barred from politics for five years, Newin is patiently waiting for his time because he is relatively still young. Newin has sent out the signal that the political world revolves around him.

When Thaksin made the announcement from London last week to declare his intention to seek exile abroad, he faxed his hand-written statement to Newin. Newin was waiting for the news from Thaksin at the Pullman Bangkok Hotel before passing the statement on to the TV newsroom of NBT to broadcast. Newin now controls more than 100 MPs from the Northeast, although the MPs from the upper Northeast don't like him, nor do the MPs from the North. But they all realise that Newin is calling most of the shots.

Newin is now backing Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee as the next prime minister. Surapong's chances of becoming prime minister depend on a power play that will be intensifying in coming months. Already, he has consolidated power in the capital markets, with Vijit Supinit and Nibhat Bhukkanasut the key players behind the scenes.

The next goal is to control the Bank of Thailand through the nomination of a new board. Vijit has also been instrumental behind this effort. Surapong has also brought Dr Virabongsa Ramangkura, the well-known economist, in as chief economic adviser to the prime minister. Virabongsa has declared war against the central bank's macroeconomic management. This allows Surapong to float above the turmoil.

The third candidate for the premiership is of course Abhisit Vejjajiva, the leader of the Democrat Party. After losing out in the last election in December 2007, Abhisit missed his chance to become prime minister because his party could not win in the Northeast at all, which commands about 40 per cent of Parliament. His next chance will depend on how the People Power Party infighting plays out or whether it breaks apart or loses popularity and how successful Abhisit is in gaining MP support in the Northeast.

All in all, Thaksin's departure is a relief for everybody, including his own people. Samak, Newin and Surapong are happy that the big boss is away forever because they can now look forward to building up their own political power base. The Thaksin era is effectively coming to a close. This time he won't be allowed to play politics from London again for too long.