• 
• 

Last week, US Defence Secretary Robert Gates was very succinct when he said that Russia must pull its troops out of Georgia as promised or Russia would have to face serious long-term consequences in its relations with the US and the West. Even after that, there would be a price to be paid. The Russian response was equally hard-headed and clear: Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Georgian territorial integrity over Ossetia and Abkhazia is no longer the issue. Welcome to a new world order in which Russia is ready to walk the walk.

With such confidence, the world needs to reassess anew US-Russian ties and their implications for global security and stability. For the past decade, the two superpowers have maintained amicable relations. Now, this goodwill is diminishing fast. President George Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice have said that Russia's action has damaged Moscow's international standing. But does Russia care? After all, this is not the first time Russia has invaded other countries to protect its interests. The invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1969 is a case in point.

Russia is not poor. Currently, more than US$1 billion pours into the country on a daily basis from gas and oil exports. With that kind of revenue, the sky is the limit. But Russia does not have as modern an economy and system of governance as some other developed countries. Its rule of law is still impinged upon by the power of the state. It still lacks transparency and accountability. Russia still does not have the same kind of international acceptance that developed Western nations enjoy.

From now on, Russia and its leaders will have a lot of explaining to do to the rest of the world. But some countries will view Russia's action favourably because it will promote a multipolar system. Certain countries are fed up with the unipolar world dominated by the US after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1991. Countries in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union will be in limbo because they are close to Russia.

Overall, the international perception of Russia will never be the same again. The ripple effect of Russia's actions will be felt far and wide, including in Asia.

Some analysts have said that it is the return of the Cold War, while others say it is not. It is simply a resurgence of Russian power - a Russian empire - and the Kremlin's willingness to use force. The free world and communism are no longer fighting each other as in the 1950s. Ideological divides, which used to be the template for the international system, no longer exist. This time around, Russia just wants to flex its muscles and draw the line on its sphere of influence in Europe.

The planned membership expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation has really irked Russia because it would place future Nato members, especially Georgia and Ukraine, right on Russia's doorstep. With the invasion of Georgia, Russia has jeopardised its reputation in the international arena. For the past decade, the country has tried to return to the international fold through its application to become a member of the World Trade Organisation. Russia is already a member of the G-8, the summit group of Western democracies. Of course, there is now the possibility of Russia being expelled from G-8 if the united West demands it. This may happen if a complete ceasefire and pullout are not forthcoming. Such a scenario would increase tension and affect the balance of power.

Russia has long identified itself as both a European and Asian power. As such, the resurgence of Russian military might will be discussed in regional meetings such as the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation and the Asean Regional Forum among others. Increased US-Russian hostility would obviously be felt in these meetings, which used to be cordial. For quite some time, Russia has expressed an interest in playing a more active role in these forums. Moscow wants to part and parcel of the new security architecture in the region, but it must show its willingness to cooperate with the wider world before this can happen.