• 
• 

Ultimatums by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov following their military action against Georgia will not be taken at face value. They will be remembered and reflected upon long after the imposed cease-fire between Russia and Georgia last week. Deteriorating Russian-US relations coupled with Russia's new-found confidence and strength could have far-reaching repercussions in the Southeast Asian region.

During the Cold War, the region was a key battleground for the two superpowers. The Vietnam War and the Cambodian conflict were regional highlights.

Whatever progress and stability the region has achieved in the past two decades could easily be thrown into jeopardy. US leaders have been talking tough and reiterating that Russia has to face the consequences of its aggression, not only bilaterally but also internationally. Within the regional context, Southeast Asia is an ideal place for a renewed contest between the two countries.

Ironically, it was a Georgian, Eduard Shevardnadze, former foreign minister of the Soviet Union, who ended the Cold War in Southeast Asia. His visit to the region, including Thailand in March 1987, signalled the end of decades of proxy wars involving Soviet adventurism in developing countries. Now it is the recent attack on Georgia that signifies the resurgence of Russian raw power.

Since the fall of the Berlin Wall, Russia's influence has rapidly shrunk, and its political and security roles within the region are marginal. Moscow has been more active in the six-party talks, which have brought about the dismantling of nuclear facilities in North Korea.

For the past two decades, Russia has been considered a lesser power than the US. Russia has often stressed that it is both a European and Asian power with global strategic interests, but its voice and various security proposals have not been taken seriously.

In the past three years, Moscow has attempted, with some success, to cement closer ties with Asean to increase its regional profile. Its willingness to sign the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation has given Moscow a unique opportunity to partake in the emerging regional security architecture. For instance, its goodwill permitted Russia to attend the inaugural East Asian Summit in Kuala Lumpur in 2005 as a special observer.

As the price of oil and gas continue to increase meteorically, so does Russia's diplomatic manoeuvrability and bargaining power worldwide. Within the regional scheme of things, as energy security increasingly takes centre stage, Russia's political and security clout has also been augmented. Russian energy giant Gazprom recently calculated that it would supply some 110 billion cubic metres of gas to Southeast Asia by 2020. Last month the Thai Cabinet approved a plan to purchase 300,000 tonnes a month of cheap, low-grade diesel from Russia to ease high fuel prices.

Taken altogether, the region will continue to depend on the Russian energy sector. In addition, the new regional order will be shaped by Russia's actions in Georgia and Russia's readiness to walk the walk and talk the talk whenever and wherever its national interests or sphere of influence is being challenged.

Russia's resolve will be tested in the weeks and months to come in Thailand over the fate of Viktor Bout, the Russian arms-dealer arrested here in March. The US government has been confident that Bout will eventually be extradited to the US, as he is wanted by the US Drug Enforcement Administration for terrorist charges and involvement in the illegal arms trade. Yet the court hearing on his extradition was delayed twice.

To underscore the importance of Bout's case to Russia, a deputy president of the lower house of Russia's parliament wrote a letter to the Thai authorities expressing eagerness to have Bout returned to Russia, where he used to serve as a senior military officer. The eventual court decision on where to extradite Bout, if it comes, will serve as a barometer of Thailand's relations with the two countries.

Thus the extradition hearing will take an extraordinary long time. It will be a three-way tug of war. The longer the judicial process takes, the more difficult the situation will be for Thailand due to external pressure.

Thailand has excellent relations with the US and Russia, but each has a different level of intensity and flavour. US President George W Bush was in Bangkok in early August to commemorate the 175th anniversary of Thai-US diplomatic relations. Due to time constraints, the president and his wife Laura did not have an audience with Their Majesties the King and Queen. They received a royal bouquet instead. The Bushes spent most of their time in Thailand addressing the Burmese plight and promoting democracy and freedom in Burma and beyond. Bush's speech on Asia with reference to Thailand was well received.

When Thailand and Russia commemorated their 110th year of diplomatic relations last July, Her Majesty the Queen went on a highly publicised 10-day state visit to Russia. She visited the Peterhof palace, where King Chulalongkorn met Tsar Nicolas II in 1897. In December 2006 Russia dispatched the world-renowned Kirov-Mariinsky Ballet to celebrate His Majesty the King's 80th birthday, a show enjoyed by the whole Royal Family - a rare occasion indeed.

In the past year Their Majesties have on different occasions commented on the longstanding friendship between Thailand and Russia, including the sophistication of Russia's hospitality and its artistic and cultural traditions. In his birthday speech last year His Majesty also commented on the quality and price of Russian battleships when he alluded to the arms-procurement scheme of the Royal Thai Navy.

On the issue of Bout's extradition, Thailand will have to manifest the diplomatic finesse that saved the country from colonisation and preserved its independence. One wrong move could cost the country dearly.