Precedents in case for extradition

WILL HE BE EXTRADITED?

No - and I'm not saying that to provoke the British authorities into doing the opposite. No amount of legal knowledge can beat the simple facts - some of them still living in evidence - that rich foreigners seeking refuge in England always get what they want. There are enough high-profile examples from recent history, such as Chile's strongman General Pinochet, that guarantee that even if Thaksin is to be finally sent back, that could be the day Manchester United is relegated, a Thai swimmer gets an Olympic bronze medal and Sondhi Limthongkul joins the monkhood.

WILL POJAMAN SHINAWATRA BE EXTRADITED?

This will test the conscience and principles of Britons to the fullest. Unlike the pending Ratchadapisek land case facing her and her husband, the tax evasion case in which she has been found guilty featured clear and seemingly undisputed legal evidence of a common crime. Some experts in British law have doubted that the crime of abusing state power to buy the Ratchapisek land could fit any category of offences under British laws.

However, if you put a gun to my head, no, she will not be extradited, and this is simply because she is so politically and diplomatically tied up with Thaksin. Sending her back means, most significantly, that England recognises the competence of the Thai courts, thus drastically weakening Thaksin's legal leverage.

Since Thaksin cannot cite race or religion to back his "persecution" claim, his only weapon is to prove to the British officials that the courts trying his and his wife's cases are not competent. In other words he needs to show that the courts have been interfered with from those with political motives to get rid of him.

If England recognises the Thai courts' competence in Pojaman's tax case, then Thaksin will also become history. So, if England wants to keep Thaksin there for whatever reason, the country has to accept Pojaman as part of the package.

WILL ENGLAND'S FOOTBALL ASSOCIATION DISQUALIFY HIS MANCHESTER CITY OWNERSHIP?

My gut feeling tells me it will. Again, if Thaksin is convicted of any of the charges raised against him, the question of "courts' competence" will come into play, but this is a relatively easier decision than the extradition one, obviously because his personal well-being will not be at risk.

Therefore, yes, the club will have a new owner before the end of the year.