Resurgent Kremlin flexes its muscles

When Russian troops and jet-fighters attacked the breakaway region of South Ossetia in Georgian territory for five days before a ceasefire brokered by France, the international community witnessed a new Russia that is not reluctant to use force - lots of it, too. Russia is more confident and affluent these days. Watching President Dmitri Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin talk about their "rights" in South Ossetia, it sent chills down the spine. With this kind of Russia, the post-Cold War world looks more dangerous because there is no more posturing or threatening as in the past - just simply action.

Russia 's military response has been described by the US government as "disproportionate" due to its overwhelming firepower over Georgia's army. For nearly two decades since the collapse of the former Soviet Union in 1991, Moscow has seen breakaway republics, the so-called "near-abroad" countries, pursue pro-Western policies, very much to the chagrin of the Russian leaders. Some of them have become overtly hostile to Russia with the support of their Western allies. For instance, both Georgia and Ukraine have been targeted by the Kremlin as the West's cohorts. Last year, Georgia and Ukraine were eager to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. But their ambitions were halted because of Russia's objections. Now Russia has turned words into action.

Make no mistake, Moscow wants to send a strong message to Georgia's Western allies that Russia will not stand idle if its sphere of influence, especially in the South Caucasus, is tampered with. Russia also hopes that its attack on Georgia will cow Ukraine, which has pursued a pro-West policy since it broke away from the former Soviet Union. It will also affect other near-abroad countries such as Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Russia will tolerate no Western influence in its own backyard. In the months to come, there will be strategic shifts in these countries.

Over the weekend, France, on behalf of the European Union, successfully brokered a ceasefire between the two countries. France wanted to see an immediate halt to hostilities, a pull-out from South Ossetia, access to and humanitarian assistance for victims and a return to the negotiation table. After the meeting with French President Nicholas Sarkozy, Medvedev said that the fighting had stopped. But it was clear that his country would not deal with Georgia's democratically elected president Mikheil Saakashvili. Indeed, it is an open secret that Russia wants to see a new leader in place who is friendlier to Russia, otherwise there is no reason to negotiate further. Indeed, Russia is in a better position today to keep what it has gained. Even after the ceasefire, the Russian government will certainly continue to back the two breakaway enclaves.

The war also demonstrated the limits of US and European power because they will not dare to intervene militarily. They can help with diplomatic support while they look for ways to mitigate the conflict. Since this is an armed conflict in Europe, the EU and the Organisation of Security and Cooperation in Europe will play a pivotal role in searching for a durable solution. It is a tall order. If this effort does not produce results, the UN will be the next step. Georgia has asked the UN Security Council to intervene. At this point it will be difficult for the UNSC to come up with any resolution. All depends on Russian goodwill.

The conflict marks the resurrection of Russia's raw military power. Russia might not be a superpower as in the past, but it is still a major force. Furthermore, Russia has lots of political clout when it comes to strategic alliances. Iran, Syria and North Korea are friends of Russia. The West needs Russia, especially in Iran. The West wants to neutralise Iran and pull the plug on Teheran's nuclear ambitions. Russia's cooperation is pivotal in achieving this objective. At this point, analysts believe that the US will not risk Russia's cooperation by aiding Georgia militarily. Likewise for the European Union.

Russia knows exactly what its strategic advantage is. The US is not going to initiate anything because of the end of the Bush administration and the upcoming presidential election. Europe is also divided on how to deal with this problem. Nobody wants to see the conflict spread. The present circumstances will benefit Russia and allow Moscow to negotiate from a position of strength. It is a new template for Russian power in Europe.