He who fights and runs away comes back to fight another day

It is neither right nor fair to blame all our national woes squarely on this one person and his actions. It is equally unrealistic to believe that his being on the lam for now will mean the end of our political malaise.

If anything, his exile means that he is no longer a stakeholder in the company called Thailand. As such, his and the company's interests no longer have to align. How dangerous that could be remains to be seen.

Every time I think about the Battle of Gettysburg, I ponder the "what if" scenario. What if the Confederate army's General Robert E Lee, in light of the lack of adequate reconnaissance information on the number and position of the Union's troops, had given a pull-back order instead of a charge into the centre of the enemy's line, as he did? Lee's decision was a gamble to win the battle and, in effect, the Civil War. He lost the bid and the war.

It should not therefore come as a surprise to anyone that the former leader decided to retreat now and not later. His return to Thailand in February - amid the cheers and tears of his sizeable support and all the offences and defences, legally, procedurally and politically - failed to produce a win or even a draw in any of the legal battles he and his family have faced.

His return did not gain him any political ground as the prime minister in office proved unmanageable in more ways than one. The genuine pain reflected in his eyes during the criminal court's deliberation on his wife's fate should have told us loudly and clearly about his subsequent move. They can hit him as hard as they want, but he cannot and will not let the one closest to his heart - his kindred spirit - bear the blunt.

It was she, as he told in his autobiography "Ta Du Dao, Tao Tid Din" published several years ago, who bailed him out when he failed spectacularly in business and was deeply in debt. It was she who was the audacious one, who answered all the phone calls from debt collectors, while all he wanted at the time was to go into hiding and wish for his creditors to disappear. It was she who pulled out all of the land deeds belonging to her and her family and mortgaged them to extricate him from debt. He has kept as a memento the old black phone to which those debt-collection calls came in. It symbolised the rock-bottom position from which he rebuilt his life and his fortune. There was also the deep bond born out of sharing the hardship and heartaches, coupled with the enormous respect on his part for his life partner and her guts. This binds the couple in a way difficult to understand by outsiders.

Exile means all the pending criminal cases against him, except one, will be suspended. The court cannot take up a criminal case without the presence of the defendant or without his/her waiver of the right to be present. The criminal case on the Ratchada land purchase is the only one that can continue because the case has already gone for trial and the former prime minister has already waived his right.

As for the civil cases, they can proceed even in his absence, and they could mean his assets that were frozen and held as collateral might eventually be seized. That is where it can get very hot and heavy. It is where the fault-line actually lies. If it were you and your billions that you believed were rightfully yours that were at stake, would you let them be taken from you without putting up a fierce fight? Could anyone blame you for staging an all-out war to prevent it from happening? Would you be willing to pay any price to end the toil and trouble that you believe to be an egregious injustice and to keep what's yours?

JK Rowling, the famed author of "Harry Potter", recently said that empathy is human's unique capacity. We can put ourselves in others' shoes and understand their experiences that we have never shared. A fair and open mind should not find it too hard to comprehend the predicament of this polarising political figure - a hero to many, villain to a lot.

It is reasonable to postulate that should the political climate in Thailand turn around and become less contentious, he could return to a possibly sunnier day in politics and the courts of law. At the national level, an improved political climate is possible only if political reconciliation takes place. But that would beg a bigger question: will our national reconciliation be possible in the foreseeable future? Will Thaksin be better or worse off with such reconciliation?

In order for reconciliation to take place, certain prerequisites are needed. The credibility of the government must be restored so that it can lead the initiative. Towards that end, the government must first establish itself as an indisputable and unbiased representative of all the people and all factions including those of the dissenting People's Alliance for Democracy. The government must also demonstrate that it can do its job competently. And as we are facing the onerous question to amend or not to amend the constitution, the government must be able to demonstrate beyond more than reasonable doubt that the revisions are not for their self-serving interests, but for the betterment of our democracy. Unfortunately, our leader and his motley crew do not inspire much confidence that they are up to the task.

A number of past political and armed conflicts have been resolved by various means of reconciliation. In many cases, it came at a hefty price in loss of lives and property. In most cases, though, some type of amnesty had to be achieved as part of the process. All parties to the conflicts must be willing to lose something in order to win something. To fight fire with fire will only burn down the house.

With a small window of opportunity and timing, the former prime minister did what he had to do to preserve his chance to fight another day. By retreating, he can say that he is theoretically out of the game, with the hope that national reconciliation will afford him an opportunity to broker a comeback. But in the meantime, with all the barbarians at the gate, who can fault him for wanting to find his poison pills?