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The first event to watch is tomorrow's appearances by Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej and Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee at the Election Commission.

The testimonies of Samak and Surapong could have a direct impact on whether the People Power Party is dissolved following executive Yongyuth Tiyapairat's conviction for electoral fraud.

The second event is the Defence Ministry's annual military rotations. The list of appointments is expected to be completed on Friday. Strange twists are possible because top generals can provide important support for political stability.

It so happens that Samak will play a decisive role in both the party dissolution case and the new military line-up.

At the EC's hearing, Samak is expected to shed light on the appointment of Yongyuth as a People Power Party executive. Surapong will provide the details of party procedures on the electoral campaign, as well as the formation of the party's executive board.

Samak's statement, with back-up by Surapong, is seen as crucial as it is an important piece of evidence that may save the People Power Party.

It is reasonable to expect Samak to tailor his remarks carefully in order to extricate his party from Yongyuth's fraud conviction.

When the Supreme Court ruled in July to penalise Yongyuth, its verdict addressed his wrongdoing but not his status as a party executive, which was not under the high court's purview. Ruling on whether to dismantle the party in relation to Yongyuth's wrongdoing is a matter for the Constitution Court to determine.

Samak has a good chance to ensure his party's survival. His statement will indicate whether Yongyuth was a fully-fledged party executive when the wrongdoing took place in October.

Steps leading to Yongyuth's appointment might be a window of opportunity to help the party escape dissolution.

If Samak's testimony goes well, his leadership might last much longer than his opponents have anticipated.

In regard to the military reshuffle, Samak is poised to have his first shot at lining up his top generals. He is always close to the military but has not previously had the opportunity to influence the military line-up.

With Army chief General Anupong Paochinda the most senior officer following the retirement of top commanders in September, Samak is bound to heed Anupong's advice.

But if Anupong is too strong that may not bode well for the government. There is no guarantee that when push comes to shove, he will continue to back Samak instead of pressuring for a snap election.

Samak has to tread carefully in picking the new line-up of Defence permanent secretary, supreme commander, air force chief and navy commander if he expects to keep a tight leash on Anupong.

Intense horse-trading is expected over a few weeks in the naming of successors to General Winai Phattiyakul, General Boonsrang Niumpradit, Air Chief Marshal Chalit Bhukpasuk and Admiral Sathirapan Keyanont.

The shortlist of top contenders for the job are either Anupong's allies or classmates. Samak will have a difficult job to counterbalance the general whose loyalty he needs the most.

A compromise may emerge that Samak will handpick his Defence permanent secretary and allow the outgoing commanders to name their successors.

Under this scenario, Samak could stay in good grace while Anupong has to face an uphill task of convincing the outgoing commanders to go along with his preferences.

If Samak succeeds in his dual tasks - keeping his party intact and achieving a right mix among the top brass - there is a glimmer of hope the political volatility of recent years will be overcome.