Thaksin's exile won't bring end to political turmoil: observers

A PPP source, who asked not to be named, said the conclusion to this story would not come soon as Thaksin has signalled he will continue to defend himself at the right time.

Chamlong Srimuang, leader of the antigovernment People's Alliance for Democracy, said the group would con¬tinue rallying, regardless of whether Thaksin returns or not.

Opposition chief whip Sathit Wongnongtoey, also a Democrat exec¬utive, said Thaksin's role in politics, the court's decision and the govern¬ment's movements from now on would be the main factors in Thai politics.

Thaksin made his choice not to defend himself within the judicial sys¬tem. However, his staying in Thailand would only cause more confrontation as the PPP attempts to amend the Constitution and opposition from the PAD increases.

Opposition and Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said Thaksin should have taken a break from poli¬tics but his remarks attacking the judi¬cial system could mean he will not leave easily.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, director of the Institute of Security and International Studies at Chulalongkorn University's Faculty of Political Science, said the focus in the future would be on whether Samak, as prime minister and PPP leader, would become more powerful and what he would do.

Meanwhile, politics would also focus on whether the Democrats take the opportunity to become the peo¬ple's alternative and whether rural peo¬ple would support them.

However, Thitinan said he was wor¬ried about the strength of the political party system. If it becomes weak, pol¬itics and the government would weak¬en accordingly.

Thitinan said much would also depend on Thaksin's behaviour. Attacking the judicial system would only add salt to the wounds, he said.

While Samak declined to comment, Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Surapong Suebwonglee said Thaksin's decision had no impact on the party as it did not depend on any particular person. Neither he nor Samak had contacted Thaksin lately.

Deputy Prime Minister and Education Minister Somchai Wongsawat said the accusation of the PPP being Thaksin's nominee could be cleared now that Thaksin had gone. Thaksin had nothing to do with the PPP even though some MPs felt loyal¬ty to Thaksin.

Meanwhile, PM's Office Minister Choosak Sirinin said Thaksin's deci¬sion could bring the PPP more unity.

Political scientist Sukhum Nualsakul said powerholders within the PPP could change, while Samak could take Thaksin's place in control¬ling the party. The PPP might not be able to survive in case of serious con¬flicts within the party. However, it would take some time before such changes happen.

Pitch Pongsawat of Chulalongkorn University's Faculty of Political Science said the survival of the PPP depended on the party's economic administra¬tion.