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There are five factors that he might be considering. First, he might be found guilty in one of the corruption cases and be sentenced to a prison term. Second, he might have to seek asylum abroad. Third, his security in Thailand is under threat. Fourth, his nominees must succeed in rewriting the Constitution to change the rules of the political game. Fifth, a military coup must be staged in his favour.

The probability of the first scenario is very high, almost 100 per cent.

In that case, the second scenario becomes inevitable. Thaksin would have to leave the country for good and settle down in a country where it is difficult for the Thai law to reach him.

The third scenario, that his personal security is under threat, has always been the subject of rumours and hearsay.

Changing the Constitution, the fourth scenario, is not going to be a convenient exercise, as Thaksin's opponents would be up in arms again. Besides, no constitutional amendment would be able to change the outcome of the court verdicts, which are going to be handed down against Thaksin in the coming months.

A military coup in favour of Thaksin, the fifth scenario, is almost impossible. The military is now under the firm command of Army Chief General Anupong Paochinda, who is a royalist. General Anupong has pledged that he would not participate in a coup and has stressed the neutral role of the military in the present ongoing political conflict. By maintaining his neutrality, General Anupong is in effect going against Thaksin, because he is seeing to it that the judicial process runs its normal course. We all know what the outcome of the judicial process involving Thaksin's cases is likely to be.

Given these scenarios, it is most likely that Thaksin will have to seek exile. But Surakiart Sathirathai, a foreign minister under Thaksin who has since turned against him, has pointed out that it would be difficult for Thaksin to legally justify a request for political asylum. Since Thaksin is subject to the judicial process, he would not be able to seek political asylum if he were to be found guilty in one of the court verdicts. Thaksin's status would be that of a fugitive, rather than a political-asylum seeker.

For the sake of reconciliation, Thaksin might end up with a royal pardon. This would pave the way for him to retire in a foreign country and pledge not to get involved in Thai politics again. He would get his money from the sale of Shin Corp back, but he would have to pay tax. Then Thailand would be able to move on.