Calm is needed before reconciliation is possible

Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej has asked for the reserved power (baramee) of Their Majesties the King and the Queen to help bridge the national divide. During his audience with the King to swear in new Cabinet members, Samak said his government would back off and avoid confrontation with its opponents. Anti-government protesters may go ahead and stage their rallies, but the government will hold its own line. In the end, this might help prevent any further turmoil.

The King said he hoped that the new Cabinet members could accomplish their assignments because the country desperately needed capable people. If the Cabinet members did their job well, the country would progress, the King said, adding that if they failed, the country would not move ahead. The King gave blessings to the new Cabinet members to help them accomplish what they have been sworn in to do.

Samak's latest stance - that he would like to avoid confrontation with opponents and critics - came as a surprise. From day one in office, Samak has done little to show that he respects the opinions of others - never mind his opponents. On the contrary, he likes to court controversy and keep himself in the headlines with his acrimonious words.

In fact, Thai politics has been polarised since Thaksin Shinawatra came to office in 2001. The national divide, between Thaksin's supporters and detractors, heightened in 2006 after the former prime minister's sale of Shin Corp to Temasek Holdings of Singapore, triggering a mass protest against his government. Following the military coup in September 2006, the Surayud government pledged to work on national reconciliation, but the effort went nowhere. The referendum on the 2007 Constitution further accentuated the national divide.

The People Power Party won the December 2007 election and Samak became the 25th prime minister of Thailand. So far the old wounds have remained unhealed. The People's Alliance for Democracy has been resurrected to protest against Thaksin's remnants, accusing Samak and his government of being nominees of the former leader. The PAD rallies upcountry have been the target of physical assaults, causing fears of further violence.

To make matters worse, the Samak administration has pushed for constitutional amendments to assure its political existence. The PAD has revived its street protests against this attempt to rewrite the Constitution. After an initial delay, the Samak government has shifted gear; it wants to amend the Constitution to its liking or to serve its political ends. Instead of tackling economic problems or laying down the foundations for sustainable growth, Samak is more interested in clinging to power and creating hell for everybody around him.

As the Criminal Court declared Pojaman Shinawatra, the wife of Thaksin, guilty of tax fraud and sentenced her to three years in jail, tension has increased. Samak has moved to keep his government alive with a Cabinet reshuffle. But disenchantment is widespread. Many people expect this government will not last beyond this year.

For now, it is difficult to heal the old and new wounds. But national reconciliation is not totally impossible if all Thais play by the rules. The government should not incite further opposition by coming up with shady policies or political moves. The PAD should stand back and not make unreasonable demands.

In the meantime, the judicial system is running its course. And in the end, the rule of law will prevail. Then and only then, when all Thais accept the outcomes of the judicial process, can we achieve a degree of reconciliation.

On the economic front, the direct or indirect affect of the political impasse is that investment will be weak and fiscal spending might be disrupted. Between January and May, foreign direct investment in the balance of payments registered a net inflow of US$2.7 billion (Bt90.7 billion), down 52.6 per cent year on year. While Japanese direct investment for car production won't end, new investment will probably be put on hold in the event of new elections.

If further political disruption continues, it might cause a delay in fiscal initiatives such as the Bt46-billion economic stimulus programme, including implementation of the 2008 fiscal budget.