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Thanavath Phonvichai, an economist of the university, said that roughly the country would run a trade deficit of only US$500 million and $1 billion, but the current account would remain in the positive territory with surplus of $3-$4 billion or 1-1.5 per cent of gross domestic product.

 "The export growth rate is attributable to the opening of new markets as well as continued demand for Thai export products which are mainly food items," he said, adding that agricultural product prices are expected to remain high throughout the year.

 Last year, the export value was $152 billion against import value of $139.9 billion.

 The university expected Thailand's economic growth to expand 5.5-6 per cent, due to the 6 energy-saving measures as well as the likelihood that crude oil price would average at $100-$120 per barrel. Originally, the GDP target was set at 5-5.5 per cent. The new target is based on the average oil price of $110-$120 per barrel and US/baht exchange rate of Bt32.50-Bt33.50.

 Meanwhile, inflation is forecasted to drop to 6.8-7.2 per cent, from previous target of 7.2-7.3 per cent.

 "However, if political conflicts escalate, the economy could expand only 4.5-5 per cent," Thanavath said. Other negative factors are the oil prices as well as the US sub-prime crisis.