Courts might soon send Thaksin packing for England

The dreadful facial expression of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra as the verdict against his wife was delivered was a telltale sign that this was a defining moment in his life.

Known for his devotion to family, Thaksin will definitely do everything in his power to ensure that his wife Pojaman never serves a day of her three-year jail term.

This does not mean he will try to tamper with the judiciary. He may well, however, take advantage of the final option remaining to him to break free from his legal troubles and that is to relocate his family to England.

Like many world leaders unwanted in their home countries, Thaksin can live a peaceful life in London. It is not imperative for him to apply for asylum. He is expected to keep busy by running Manchester City Football Club.

Under Thai law, Thaksin and Pojaman may remain fugitives for the rest of their lives, but that is a reasonable price to pay in exchange for a fresh start. The alternative is imprisonment with a glimmer of hope for a royal pardon.

When Thaksin ended his self-imposed exile in February, he may have harboured a secret hope that the People Power Party's election victory could translate into his triumphant return.

He found himself caught up in legal wrangling because of politics, so it was reasonable that he would expect politics to rescue him from trouble. Unfortunately things failed to go according to plan.

The People Power Party has plunged into the political quagmire and now barely remains afloat. Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej proved to be a hard-headed proxy. And the judiciary turned out to be an impregnable fortress.

The excitement of the People Power Party's election victory quickly faded. The government was preoccupied with its problems, hence it was not in a position to get Thaksin out of his legal entanglements.

Although every court battle involving Thaksin and his wife has political overtones, the judicial review is based strictly on pertinent factual and legal issues.

The tax-evasion case involving Pojaman provided clear proof that the judiciary cannot be swayed by sentiment.

From start to finish, the evidence shown during trial indicated a clear-cut case for conviction. And the Criminal Court found no cause to grant leniency in sentencing.

The defence can hope to overturn the conviction by appellate review, though the odds are stacked against such a move being successful.

The next court battle will focus on the Ratchadaphisek land case involving Thaksin and Pojaman. The graft case, which is being tried in the Supreme Court, is expected to conclude this month or early next month if there are delays.

The prosecution's evidence is strong, and a conviction is looming a few months following trial. Since the case is being fast-tracked, the judicial review is one tier and Thaksin will have no chance to appeal.

If Thaksin is to relocate his family, he must do so soon, preferably before the conclusion of the land case in order to get permission to travel abroad.

Preparations might already be under way for relocation. Thaksin is disengaging himself from the People Power Party.

If the latest Cabinet reshuffle is any indication, Samak has gained a firmer grip on the People Power Party while Thaksin is fading out. A few months ago, no one would have believed that Samak could win the loyalty of more than 30 MPs from the Northeast.

Although the Isaan Pattana faction has dissolved itself, its MPs still retain a loose alliance with Samak out of gratitude for his allocation of a Cabinet seat.

Of course, Thaksin still wields formidable influence over the People Power Party. But he appears to delegate more and more decisions to be made among the four powerful factions.

The People Power Party is on track to seeing itself run by collective leadership.

The factions are led by Newin Chidchob for MPs from the lower Northeast, Sudarat Keyuraphan for Bangkok MPs, Sompong Amornwiwat and Yongyuth Tiyapairat for MPs from the North and Surapong Suebwonglee for People Power Party members from the so-called October generation.

Surapong and Newin are close allies even though they run separate factions. Samak commands his 30 MPs as leverage to maintain his leadership.

If Thaksin departs Thailand for good, the four factions will try to preserve the status quo within the People Power Party and try to wait out the expiration of the five-year ban after which Thai Rak Thai executives can resume political activities.

For Samak, his job is to make his leadership last as long as possible. This is his last hurrah before going back into retirement.

For Thais, the political melodrama involving Thaksin will forever remain a cliffhanger - turmoil wreaking havoc but villains never identified and punished.

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